Former Haas Formula 1 Team Principal Guenther Steiner has predicted a Titanic development war battle in 2026.
F1 is set for a year of constant change to the competitive order, as the teams battle all new cars for the 2026 season.
The first swing of the development war pendulum fell in Miami, as McLaren and Ferrari brought substantial upgrades to the cars in order to catch runaway leaders Mercedes.
While Norris showed McLaren’s progress by winning the Sprint Race, Ferrari saw their position as “best of the rest” fall away, overtaken by the resurgent McLaren.
But Steiner believes that swings like this will be commonplace, as the teams bring upgrades to circuits across the year.
I think it will be close over the whole season because McLaren brought a lot of upgrades to Miami, while Mercedes didn’t,” he said on the Red Flags podcast.
“I think Mercedes is targeting a big upgrade for Canada, so we have to wait for that. I think it’s a bit of a battle over who develops more and develops better.
F1 teams still in a learning phase?
Steiner also highlighted that the development race will be impacted as teams make significant breakthroughs during the early learning phase of the regulations.
“But Mercedes still isn’t behind despite not making major changes to the car with upgrades like McLaren has, because now, if you get the upgrades right, they can make a big difference to performance.
“At the moment, because it’s a new regulation cycle, teams are still learning a lot. So I’m not saying it’s easy, but it’s easier than it will be in three years’ time to find performance in a car.”
F1 development wars can significantly alter a team’s momentum during a title run. With so much still to explore and understand about the 2026 technical regulations, the current order is far from cemented.
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