After an unplanned break due to cancelled races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, and only one race in April in Miami, the Canadian Grand Prix arrives carrying a lot more weight.
The first part of the season was already shaken up by new rules and new cars that completely changed the picture in the standings.
Mercedes have come out of the new regulation cycle looking sharper than anyone expected. Kimi Antonelli has gone from exciting young talent to championship leader in a matter of weeks. George Russell is under more pressure than he would like inside his own garage. McLaren look close enough to make Mercedes work for it. Ferrari have points, experience, and star power, but not enough race wins yet. Red Bull, strangely, are no longer the automatic reference point.
Now F1 goes to Montreal
The Canadian Grand Prix will be held at Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve on Sunday, May 24, 2026. It is a 70-lap race around a 4.361km track, with a full distance of over 300km. The weekend also includes a Sprint race, with Practice 1 and Sprint Qualifying on Friday, the Sprint and Grand Prix qualifying on Saturday, and the main race on Sunday.
The Montreal track is a mix of fast stretches, but it also has stop-start sections, long straights, slow corners, heavy braking zones, and the famous Wall of Champions waiting at the final chicane. It punishes impulsive drivers, but it also gives smart teams a chance to win through strategy, safety cars, tyre timing, and clean exits out of the hairpin.
The upcoming race will be a test of whether Mercedes are really in control, whether Antonelli can keep this extraordinary run going, whether Russell can answer back and whether McLaren or Red Bull can turn the odds in their favour. It’s also exactly the kind of weekend where Formula 1 expert picks and predictions get interesting, because Montreal rarely gives teams a clean, predictable race.
Why Montreal gives underdogs a chance
Montreal is the kind of race where small gaps can shrink quickly, especially in qualifying. The walls sit close, the braking zones are heavy, and one mistake at the final chicane can ruin a session. Add safety cars, changeable weather, and real overtaking chances, and the Canadian Grand Prix can change fast.
That’s why Mercedes is not the clear favourite in Canada. Antonelli can be the form driver and still find himself in trouble if he starts badly again. Russell can love the circuit and still lose out if McLaren undercuts him. Norris can have the pace and still need perfect timing from the pit wall. Piastri can be quiet for two days and then become dangerous on Sunday.
Verstappen can qualify fifth and still be a nightmare in the mirrors. Ferrari can look ordinary in practice and then have the fastest start.
The Sprint race adds more pressure. With only one practice session before Sprint Qualifying, teams have less time to settle the car. That can help confident teams, but it can also expose setups that are slightly wrong. Mercedes should be strong enough to handle that. McLaren may like the extra competitive running. Ferrari and Red Bull cannot afford to waste Friday.
Where the betting markets stand before Canada
The betting odds are clear. Antonelli is the favourite because he has won three Grands Prix in a row, leads the standings, and is driving the strongest car. Russell is close behind because he is also in the Mercedes, won in Canada last year, and remains second in the championship. Norris is the leading non-Mercedes pick because McLaren were close in Miami and his pace looked good enough to bother Antonelli. Verstappen is the dangerous outsider because he is Verstappen, but Red Bull still need to prove the Miami upgrade was not track-specific.
On the Stake.com online Formula 1 sportsbook Antonelli is listed as the Drivers’ Championship favourite at 2.20, with George Russell next at 3.25 and Lando Norris at 4.25. Oscar Piastri sits further back at 15.00, while Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc are both listed at 17.00. Lewis Hamilton is a long shot at 66.00.
Stake also offers Formula 1 markets across race, qualifying, practice, podium, top six, pre-live, and live betting markets, so the Canadian Grand Prix board can shift quickly once Sprint Qualifying, practice pace, weather, penalties, and long-run data become clearer. In Montreal, a safety car, a lockup into the final chicane, or one smart pit call can change the whole betting picture.
Mercedes have set the pace so far
The standings say the obvious thing: Mercedes are the team to beat.
After Miami, Mercedes lead the Constructors’ Championship with 180 points. Ferrari are second on 110, McLaren are third on 94, and Red Bull are a distant fourth on 30. Alpine, Haas, Racing Bulls, Williams, and Audi follow behind, with Cadillac and Aston Martin still without points. That’s a huge early gap, especially in a season where teams are still learning the 2026 cars and power units.
The drivers’ standings look similar. Antonelli leads with 100 points. Russell is second on 80. Charles Leclerc sits third on 59. Lando Norris and Lewis Hamilton are tied on 51, Oscar Piastri has 43, and Max Verstappen is only seventh with 26. Oliver Bearman, Pierre Gasly, Liam Lawson, Franco Colapinto, Arvid Lindblad, Isack Hadjar, Carlos Sainz, Gabriel Bortoleto, Esteban Ocon, and Alex Albon make up the rest.
That table would have sounded unbelievable a few months ago. Antonelli leading the championship with three wins already. Russell chasing his own teammate. Verstappen outside the top six. Ferrari second in the teams’ race but still without the same authority as Mercedes. McLaren recovering quickly, but still not quite landing the biggest Sundays.
The Canadian Grand Prix now becomes the first real pressure weekend after Miami. Mercedes are no longer just the quick starter of the season. They are the team everybody is measuring themselves against.
Ferrari need a win
Ferrari are second in the Constructors’ Championship, but that doesn’t fully describe their season. In standings, 110 points seem like a solid start. Leclerc is third in the Drivers’ Championship with 59 points. Hamilton is tied with Norris on 51. Ferrari have two experienced race winners and enough points to sit ahead of McLaren.
Leclerc has been scoring, but he’s not yet driving a car that looks ready to dominate a Sunday. Hamilton has brought experience, but he is still waiting for a proper breakthrough at Ferrari. Is Canada going to be their first win this season? If the car is as strong on the straights as it is off the start, they might have a chance.
Still, they need more than fourth, fifth, and sixth place finishes. Mercedes are already 70 points ahead. If Ferrari leave Canada with another respectable but unspectacular result, the gap could be unattainable before the European summer even begins.
McLaren are still within striking distance
The start of the season was unremarkable, but McLaren are still in the race.
Lando Norris finished second in Miami and was clearly frustrated by the result. After the race, the reigning champion said that McLaren “just got undercut” and that there were “no excuses” after Antonelli beat him through the pit sequence. Essentially, McLaren missed the key call, Antonelli did the job, and Norris had to accept it.
This is exactly the kind of loss that could make or break a driver, which puts more pressure on the team to have perfect execution in Montreal.
Oscar Piastri has 43 points and sits sixth in the standings. He also finished third in Miami, which is exactly the result the team was going for, because McLaren needed both cars to score heavily after a mixed start to the season.
Last year, McLaren had an infamous race in Canada when Norris and Piastri collided late while fighting near the front, and Norris retired. Hopefully it was a lesson for both drivers to do better this year without racing each other into trouble.
Verstappen is the dangerous outsider
Max Verstappen, seventh in the championship with 26 points, is one of the strangest statements any F1 fan can say.
This happened mostly because Red Bull have not given him the same platform he had in previous years. The RB22 has looked difficult, and Red Bull’s adaptation to the 2026 rules hasn’t been as smooth as Mercedes’. Verstappen still produced some unforgettable moments, but the race-winning machinery has not been there.
Before Miami, Verstappen said his Red Bull was “still not where I want it to be,” although he called his Sprint Qualifying performance a positive step after taking fifth. Motorsport.com later reported that Miami upgrades helped him feel less like a “passenger” in the car — a very Verstappen way of saying Red Bull had finally given him something he could attack with.
Canada also gives Red Bull a chance to learn quickly. If the Miami upgrades really did reduce the gap, Montreal will show whether that improvement works across another track type. The circuit is low downforce, heavy on braking, and usually more forgiving to teams that can be fast in a straight line. If Red Bull are closer here, Verstappen becomes a real podium threat. If not, the championship gap may already start looking too wide.
The drivers with the most to prove
Antonelli has the most to protect. His season has moved from impressive to historic very quickly, and that brings a new type of pressure. Every weekend now becomes a test of whether the run is real. Canada is especially interesting because he already stood on the podium there in 2025, but this time he arrives as the championship leader, not the rookie.
Russell has the most to answer. He’s not in crisis just yet, but the comparison is uncomfortable. Being second in the championship should feel strong. Being second to a teammate who is suddenly winning everything is very different. Montreal gives him the perfect stage because of last year’s win. If he beats Antonelli here, the Mercedes title fight resets. If Antonelli beats him again, the tension is going to be unbearable.
Norris has the most obvious missed-opportunity feeling. Miami was there to be won, or at least close enough that McLaren left frustrated. His “no excuses” reaction was honest, and that’s usually a good sign. Canada now gives him a chance to show McLaren’s pace was not just a Miami-specific moment.
Piastri needs a headline weekend. He has points and speed, but Norris is ahead in the standings. A podium in Canada would put him back into the sharper end of the McLaren lineup, and into a position he was in this time last year.
Leclerc and Hamilton need Ferrari to stop looking like a points collector and start looking like a winner. They are too good to be treated as long shots every weekend, but they would need better pace and smarter strategy to end up on the podium.
Verstappen needs Red Bull to give him a car that lets him fight. If they do, Canada could get very uncomfortable for everyone else.
What to expect in Montreal
The 2026 Canadian Grand Prix has a strong favourite, but Montreal rarely makes things easy for the teams.
Antonelli is the most obvious pick. Three straight wins, 100 points, and a Mercedes car. Russell is the best direct challenger because he has the same machinery, a Canada win from last year, and strong motivation to prove he’s not the second driver to a teenager. Norris is close enough to make the race uncomfortable for Mercedes if McLaren execute better than they did in Miami. Verstappen shouldn’t be ignored regardless of Red Bull’s unimpressive start.
The most likely scenario for Canada is still a Mercedes-led weekend. The more interesting version is Antonelli, Russell, and Norris separated by small margins, with Verstappen close enough to turn one mistake into a podium. Ferrari will want to be in that fight too, if they can keep up the pace.
Canada should show whether Mercedes are winning mainly because their car is the best, or because Antonelli is already becoming the driver to beat. If he beats Russell and the rest again in Montreal, the title race will start to look more like his season to lose.
