As far as the Formula 1 calendar goes, the Miami Grand Prix is one of the youngest events on the schedule.
Yet, in a span of a few short years it has quickly risen to the top of popularity charts among both the fans and the drivers. The Miami GP has been around since 2022, and what made it so favourable among Formula 1 fans is that it has that unique American taste only present at their most vibrant cities, paired with unmistakably one of the best circuits on the calendar.
The Miami International Autodrome at Hard Rock Stadium will be home to another Grand Prix, and all eyes of the racing fans community will be set on Miami after a lengthy and unfortunate break that lasted five weeks.
Despite the setback, Formula 1 caravan is now moving to the Sunshine State for the first grand prix of the American spring season in F1. While you might think that drivers and engineers have been resting, that was not the case.
When there’s a calendar break in Formula 1, the team employees, and especially those who deal with research and development are not allowed to conduct their work. This time around, it was different.
Considering that it was an unplanned break, the teams were allowed to do their work, meaning that we might see plenty of changes in team’s approach to the rest of the season starting with the 2026 Miami Grand Prix.
2026 Miami GP odds
With the start of a new calendar year in Formula 1 many things have changed. The biggest concerns were tied to how will the teams and the drivers adapt to the new weight limitations set by FIA.
From the first race, it was evident that Mercedes did the best work in the offseason, giving their drivers advantage over the rivals. The early season predictions were right, and Mercedes did dominate in the first three races of the season.
Kimi Antonelli has two wins and three podium appearances which was enough for 72 points and top of the table at this point in the season. Right behind him we have George Russell with 63 points, one win, and three podiums.
With these numbers after only three races it is evident that Mercedes is the team to follow this season. Another team that has done a good job in the offseason was Ferrari, and the Reds from Italy are looking to get back to the top as soon as possible after a couple of years of mediocrity.
So far, Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton have failed to win a single race, but Leclerc was on the podium twice, while Hamilton got one podium to his name.
The team that was the biggest letdown so far, especially considering last season’s performances, is definitely McLaren. After dominating the circuits in 2025, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are falling behind the top dogs in 2026, with only the Australian driver managing to get up to the podium once.
Based on everything we said, you can guess that both Mercedes drivers have the best odds of winning in Miami. While Kimi Antonelli was superb so far this season, the bookies still have George Russell as the prime candidate to win it all come the end of the year and his odds for the Miami GP set at 2.40 are proof of this.
Kimi has the same odds attached to his name, but if you take a look at the expert betting picks and predictions for F1, Russell still has the edge.
It would appear that the racing community believes that McLaren has done a good work during the break, as after the Mercedes drivers we have two men from the British team, with Oscar Piastri having odds on winning in Miami set at 10.00, while Norris has slight disadvantage here with his odds of winning being at 12.00. Behind them, we have two men from Ferrari with odds 15.00 on Leclerc and 17.00 on Lewis Hamilton.
While the days of Red Bull domination are clearly behind us, we still must point out that the odds set on Max Verstappen that are currently standing at 36.00 are quite extraordinary, considering the quality of the Dutch diver, and his never give up attitude.
If we had to pick a dark horse to win the Miami Grand Prix it would without a doubt be Max Verstappen, and with odds that pay as well as his do, it is certainly a gamble worth taking if you’re planning to bet on F1 on stake.com.
Miami Grand Prix could mix up the pecking order
There’s a lot at stake at the Miami Grand Prix. The entire calendar of F1 was shaken up due to the misfortunes falling down on the Middle East. That’s why, the Miami GP, which was intended to be the 6th race of the season, is now the fourth, and the teams are entering it after taking a five-week break.
Because of this, its strategic importance was elevated to a higher level. During the break, teams were on the line with FIA and some of the technical regulations that were there at the start of the year could be subtly changed to the team’s advantage.
We’re mostly talking about harsher regulations introduced this season tied to power unit management and energy deployment. If everything goes according to plan, subtle changes that will be put in place going forward could drastically change some of the team’s performances.
The order that we have in place now could be changed, but it will be hard either way, to dethrone Mercedes. Yet, the teams positioned below them could get higher, and the team with best chances of looking better coming forward in the season is McLaren.
While Mercedes had the technical advantage during the first three races, that difference will be lower now after the break. Considering that the quality of drivers of both teams is similar, we could experience one of the rare four-man races till the end of the year with George Russell and Kimi Antonelli feeling the fire under their feet fired up by Piastri and Norris.
The one team that has most to lose from this development is Ferrari. They have gotten better this year, and have gone into every race with intention to win. Yet, it was clear that while their early setup was better than McLaren’s they’re not as good as Mercedes.
Now, if the British team gets better after the break, it could be Ferrari, a team that will be left behind, and everyone who plans to bet in Formula 1 on Stake.com should have this in mind starting from the 2026 Miami Grand Prix.
McLaren’s Rise Puts Pressure on Ferrari
We all saw that McLaren was struggling early on in the year. Yet, if you’ve been paying attention, the Japanese Grand Prix was a turning point. Oscar Piastri got himself to the podium, while Norris barely failed to do so after finishing fifth.
This result showed the world that while the team was still struggling with some of the issues they brought into the new season, they were figuring things out on the go too. The new technical package was not an easy thing for teams to figure out, but finally McLaren and last season’s champ Lando Norris are starting to get the idea of how everything needs to work in order to start winning races.
If everything goes according to plan for McLaren, and all things showing that it will, they could take over Ferrari right after the Miami GP is concluded. At the start of the season, McLaren adopted Mercedes’ power unit.
Yet, it was not a finished product. It needed internal work to make it an ideal fit for both their chassis and their drivers. Something that Mercedes knew and gained early season advantage off of it.
Now, after a five week break, McLaren has shown signs of knowing how the setup needs to be deployed, especially in terms of how energy is deployed throughout the laps. Their work will be seen as early as in Miami, and Ferrari needs to be on the lookout for last year’s champs, as they’re trying to get back into this season.
Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton to hold their ground
As it’s usually the case, one or two teams cannot hold all the strings in their hands. Ferrari is still here, and their good start to the season is a sign of many good things coming their way in coming races. Of course, Mercedes is one step ahead, and now McLaren is getting closer too, but that’s a good chance for Hamilton and Leclerc to respond.
As far as Scuderia Ferrari goes they need to continue in the same vein at least, if getting better is not possible at this time. Right now, they are one of the frontrunners for the constructor’s title together with Mercedes. Yet, if they’re to remain in that conversation there must not be a drop off in performances, and it all starts with Miami GP.
What works against Ferrari is the Sprint format which has put limits on team’s practices and puts focus on preparation, and what can be done on the track in the moment of qualifications and the race itself.
If there’s any misjudgement in preparation of the car or a wrong strategy put in place before the race, the consequences are now greater than ever and that’s what puts additional pressure on Ferrari and the rest of the F1 caravan.
The Miami GP will be a tightly contested field of battle for all top drivers, and those who want to remain competitive for the rest of the year need to show up in Florida.
Who will win in Miami?
It is believed that we have one of the most interesting races this season ahead of us. That might be the case, as teams have had more than enough time to get ready for top results in Miami.
The bookies still favour George Russell, despite his young Italian teammate, Andrea Kimi Antonelli showing signs that he is more than willing to contend this season. He has managed to win two races already, and regardless of what the bookmakers and the odds have to say, we believe that this race is Kimi’s to lose.
The odds suggest that it’s going to be between him and George Russell, but we beg to differ. We think that there’s a lot of pressure being put on Russell who was the early favourite to win it all before the season kicked off, and that pressure is obviously getting to him.
Russell might be the only top diver that didn’t find this break to be benefiting his ambitions. That’s why we think that he’s not going to even make it to the podium. Instead, we will have one of Ferrari’s drivers, and our bold prediction is that it’s going to be Lewis Hamilton.
While we’re in the area of being bold, we think that everyone and their mother are underestimating Max Verstappen this season a bit too much. The Dutch driver is still one of the best at what he does, and he might just prove it once again at the Miami Grand Prix after having five weeks to get ready for this race together with his Red Bull team.
The top five will be rounded by George Russell and Oscar Piastri, while Leclerc will in our opinion drop below top five drivers for this race. For us, it’s Kimi, Lewis, Max, George, Oscar, and Charles. Who you’ve got?
