Will McLaren’s lead prompt main F1 rivals to commit to earlier switch to 2026?

McLaren‘s imperious start to 2025 has triggered claims that both titles are sewn up, but that is not a view the team’s Formula 1 rivals have subscribed to at this stage.

The Woking-based squad’s dominance continued during the Miami Grand Prix last weekend as Oscar Piastri headed team-mate Lando Norris to deliver the side a 1-2.

But while Norris and Piastri have won all but one race between them in the opening six, McLaren’s advantage is what has generated concern across the chasing pack.

Despite not overtaking pole-sitter Max Verstappen to nab the lead until Lap 14, Piastri crossed the line with a crushing 37-second gap to George Russell in third place.

McLaren’s blistering beginning to the campaign has gone against the winter anticipation that 2025 could be among the closest seasons that the series has ever seen.

There was no reasonable doubt that McLaren concluded 2024 with the benchmark package, but Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull all prevailed during the last five races.

But while the competition has been able to equal or even usurp McLaren over a single lap, the reigning champions have been near untouchable under race conditions.

That has amounted to McLaren opening up a 105-point lead over Mercedes, with the German marque’s total combined with Red Bull not enough to topple the leaders.

McLaren being a cut above has prompted question marks about whether the contingent that makes up the leading quartet could be tempted to give up hope on 2025.

Williams, the next best placed side in the Constructors’ Championship, has opted to pivot resources to 2026 in a bid to capitalise on the impending regulation change.

The Grove-based squad would have been hoping that a tight battle ensued at the sharp end to prolong the point at which those ahead commit to the complete switch.

But despite McLaren’s ever-growing margin, Red Bull has been pushing through slight upgrades in recent races and the squad has a more extensive package to come.

Red Bull’s unchanged approach

Red Bull is the sole team to have pipped the McLaren duo over a complete race distance when Verstappen utilised track position in Japan to topple Norris and Piastri.

Meanwhile, the Dutchman was well-placed to repeat that result until the stewards penalised him in Saudi Arabia, a decision which propelled Piastri to an eventual win.

Such occasions, though, have boosted Horner’s optimism that Red Bull can mount a turnaround to provide Verstappen with the tools needed to retain his Drivers’ title.

Horner, who has guided Red Bull to 14 championships under his watch, insisted that McLaren being in “another league” in Miami hasn’t impacted his team’s approach.

“Well, of course, it varies from circuit to circuit,” Horner told media including Motorsport Week. “In the last race we had the pace to beat the McLarens.

“This race has exposed their advantage, and they’ve been able to operate in a window that they’ve been very effective with.

“So, of course, when you look at that performance, it feels like a lot to find.

“But we’ve seen how quickly from circuit-to-circuit things can change.

“So obviously we know the areas that we need to improve, and they haven’t changed from before we arrived here.”

Did Miami flatter McLaren’s true advantage?

Ferrari has endured an even more galling time with a capricious SF-25 charger that condemned the side’s two drivers to squabbling over seventh and eighth in Miami.

Nevertheless, Ferrari boss Fred Vasseur concurred with Horner that the Miami International Autodrome’s track characteristics were tailor-made for McLaren’s MCL39.

“Today it was clearly the case [that McLaren were quickest], but it was not the case last week in Jeddah,” the Frenchman contended.

“I think in Jeddah last week, Charles [Leclerc] was faster than the others from Lap 10, when he was in third at the end.

“Sometimes we are able to fight with them, but it’s not enough. You have to be able to fight one race or whatever, but today we were far away.

“We were far away because of the characteristics of the track. We are much more rear-limited, so it’s fitting more with the McLaren approach.”

Could an FIA clampdown hamper McLaren?

Like Red Bull, Ferrari is also pressing on with 2025 development. The Italian marque, though, is also keen to see whether an approaching rule tweak will hurt McLaren.

Next month’s Spanish Grand Prix will bring the much-anticipated FIA clampdown on flexing front wings, an area McLaren is thought to have exploited well since 2024.

Vasseur has predicted the ninth event in Barcelona will impose a complete “reset” to the pecking order, while Horner has agreed that there will be a noticeable impact.

“For sure it’s going to have an effect,” Horner echoed.

“How much it affects your competitors versus your own, it’s difficult to predict, but for sure it’s a significant change. 

“It’s not just a tweak. It will affect all of the cars, it’s just to what quantum.”

But according to Norris, rivals operating on the supposition that the Technical Directive will clip McLaren’s wings isn’t a view that is shared within the team in question.

“You see a lot of what people say and what they speculate, but no, I’m confident not much at all has to change for us and we can keep doing what we’re doing,” he said.

“I think we’ll be strong through the whole season. I’m confident of that.

“We have plenty of things we want to improve and do even better on, but others can say what they want and think what they want. I don’t mind.”

Piastri unsure when McLaren plans 2026 switch

Meanwhile, Piastri, who harbours a 16-point lead over his team-mate, recognised that McLaren’s strong start will help the team’s prospects both this season and next.

“There are a lot of other smarter people than me who calculate when it’s time to switch to next year,” the Australian quipped.

“Clearly, we do have a strong advantage at the moment, but not every weekend has looked like this.

“Saudi last weekend, our competition was very close, and we didn’t have it that comfortably.

“This weekend, a very different story, but I don’t expect every weekend to look like this.

“I think we have the advantage everywhere we go. Sometimes it’s a little, sometimes a lot.

“Clearly, in this position now, we have a lot of focus on next year.

“We want to make sure we win both championships this year and put ourselves in a good spot for next year.”

READ MORE – Why Oscar Piastri believes F1 title tension won’t cause irreparable divide at McLaren