Formula 1 is brutal and it does not get more punishing than in Red Bull’s second seat. It took Liam Lawson two races to feel the wrath and get shunted back into a VCARB car with Yuki Tsunoda stepping up into the hot seat this weekend.
Christian Horner referred to the decision as a ‘performance issue’ and ‘duty of care’ to Liam Lawson:
“It’s been difficult to see Liam struggle…. This is purely a sporting decision”.
Brutal for Lawson but his DNF in Australia and 12th place finish in China (only after three cars ahead of him were disqualified) was enough for Horner to wield the axe adding expectation onto that second seat. Now, Tsunoda gets his long-awaited opportunity in the car that is notoriously difficult to drive and to add more pressure, he makes his debut on home soil in front of his adoring fans. A pressure, Tsunoda is not hiding:
“There aren’t many moments in life where you face this kind of extreme pressure and an opportunity as big as this, so I can only imagine that it’s going to be an incredibly thrilling race.”
The Japanese star knows he has a fine window to impress the Red Bull brass and will be attempting to do so in an ultra-responsive car designed for Max Verstappen. Verstappen will naturally be Tsunoda’s reference point on track which adds to the challenge considering the champion has dominated in Japan finishing 1st in the last three years while Tsunoda’s highest place finish in Japan is 10th (2024).
That said, Verstappen (6/1) is only the third favourite to win behind the two McLaren’s, Lando Norris (7/5) and Oscar Piastri (2/1). Interestingly, Tsunoda (33/1) is now seventh favourite behind George Russell (12/1) and Lewis Hamilton (12/1).
Those who think Tsunoda will immediately take to the Red Bull RB21 will be very tempted by those odds. You could calculate your return now, although we’ll have a much better idea of how he’ll fare after Saturday’s qualifying.
If Tsunoda can beat the odds and get near a podium, it will be a successful debut and the pressure will be temporarily relieved. However, after McLaren prevented a third Constructors Championship in a row last year and Red Bull announcing Verstappen’s fifth partner in just over six years, is the pressure really on Tsunoda or is it Red Bull?
Sergio Perez’s form last year ultimately cost Red Bull the Constructors Championship and they desperately want it back. They gave Lawson his chance but acted quickly promoting the more experienced driver to change their fortunes. However, if Tsunoda struggles in the Japan Grand Prix on Sunday, questions will be asked of Horner and advisor Helmut Marko.
The decision to chop a young driver after two races can be justified if Tsunoda performs but if he struggles to manage that bull of a machine, the knives will be out. McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes will be ruthless this season and Red Bull cannot rely on their golden boy for the entirety of another season.
Placing third or even fourth in the Constructors will cost Red Bull millions and the finger will be pointed at the decisions around that second seat. Red Bull arguably, will not have faced more pressure than this season.
With the recent driver announcement, they have balanced that pressure by tipping it on to Tsunoda whose career trajectory can hinge in front of his home fans during the Japan Grand Prix. It is fair to say, the pressure mounts enormously on both Tsunoda and Red Bull and Sunday 6th April will be a huge test of character for everyone involved.
