McLaren CEO Zak Brown has predicted that reigning Formula 1 champion Max Verstappen will decide to leave Red Bull to move to Mercedes for the 2026 campaign.
The Dutchman’s prospects have provided much speculation since tension behind the seats coincided with Red Bull sustaining a downturn in competitiveness in 2024.
With Lewis Hamilton signing with Ferrari, Verstappen’s name was bandied about as Mercedes boss Toto Wolff’s leading target to replace the seven-time F1 champion.
However, with Verstappen insisting that he would be remaining with Red Bull in 2025, Mercedes promoted Andrea Kimi Antonelli to the seat alongside George Russell.
Verstappen, though, has been linked with a possible move to Aston Martin, with reports claiming that a deal worth $1 billion could see him reunite with Adrian Newey.
But Brown, who has spearheaded McLaren’s renaissance to eclipse Red Bull as the benchmark in the sport, is convinced Verstappen will make a switch to Mercedes.
“Oh I think he’ll leave at the end of this year, most likely to Merc,” Brown told The Telegraph.
“There’s been talk of Aston Martin, too, with Adrian Newey joining.
“But as great as Adrian is – and he’s the greatest ever – you need a whole team around you. You need the culture. That takes time.
“If I was betting, I’d bet on Merc.”
Brown highlighted how the suspicion that Mercedes has an edge with work on the next-generation power units coming in 2026 could be enough to entice Verstappen.
“In the last 10 years, they’ve won the championship seven or eight times,” he pinpointed. “Last year they won five races. They have stability.
“We know Toto likes him.
“And I think we all feel HPP [Mercedes High Performance Powertrains] is best equipped on the power unit side heading into the new engine regulations next year.
“Plus, George is out of contract at the end of this season and Kimi will be on a series of one-years.”
Mercedes performance key to future Verstappen move?
The contractual situation of both Mercedes drivers could come into play, should Brown’s assertion that Verstappen is likely to join the team be correct.
Antonelli has kickstarted his F1 car in impressive fashion, overturning a lowly grid place at the season-opener in Melbourne to finishing in fourth, navigating his way through the tricky, changeable conditions to stay on the road and finish one place behind Russell, who completed the podium.
The Italian’s progress will be watched closely, and will be keen to repay the faith shown in him by Wolff, who chose him to fill the seismic gap left by Hamilton.
Russell has performed admirably in his time with the team, since joining from Williams in 2022.
In three seasons, the Kings Lynn man has finished above Hamilton in the Drivers’ standings twice, being the first team-mate of the seven-time champion to do so.
Depending on the competitiveness of the W16, Russell will be surely expected to return more wins this year.
An additional factor at play could be his relationship with Verstappen, which took a contentious turn last year at the Qatar Grand Prix, in which an alleged incident involving the stewards, who stripped him of pole position, left him saying he had “lost respect” for Russell, who then rebuked Verstappen’s attitude in media interviews after the event.
However, such speculation may be academic, as Wolff has said Verstappen was “not on any radar” for the team.
READ MORE – Max Verstappen ‘not on Mercedes radar’ as George Russell contract talks loom
Surely Aston, with Alonso 43, new wind tunnel, Honda, and Newey.