It’s happening again.
The Twin Peaks fans among you will recognise these words, used in promotion of its new series, a mere quarter century after the preceding one. In that preceding series they were in turn said in slow, haunting, weighty tones by the giant to warn protagonist Dale Cooper that the antagonist BOB was doing the latest of his evil deeds (for the uninitiated, that’s David Lynch for you).
But for F1 right now, for Sebastian Vettel’s rivals chiefly, all may have a similar creeping, foreboding sense of something chilling, yet seen before, happening afresh.
Few drivers have divided opinion like Vettel has. Despite (or maybe in a certain sense because of) his four world drivers’ championships. Yet in one sense it’s apt, as alongside his titles we also can point at campaigns such as last year’s as well as that in 2014 wherein without everything around him Seb did not live up to his own end of the bargain.
But the other extreme is true also. That when Seb has the smell of a championship in his nostrils he finds a sky scraping level to make the absolute best of the opportunity. And, thus far in 2017, it’s happening again.
When Seb has the smell of a championship in his nostrils he finds a sky scraping level to make the absolute best of the opportunity. And, thus far in 2017, it’s happening again.
When his machine is good (which it is), the rear of the car is nailed (which it is, in part thanks to the new rules) and there is a peaky, knife edge level of grip for him to daintily dance upon (which this year’s Pirelli seems to provide), Seb is on a plateau.
Up until Montreal he had never failed to finish outside of the top two this season; moreover it’s near enough impossible to pinpoint where he didn’t maximise a result. And in Montreal even after having to replace his front wing early, doing so under green flag racing and having no subsequent safety car to aid his recovery, he still came through to finish fourth.
Cynics will point out that things went his way in Canada – team mate Kimi Raikkonen’s brake troubles and the Force India soap opera we know about. But that’s another thing that is straight from Seb’s title winning pomp. That even on the days things don’t go for him, things go for him. Likely not mysticism though; you know what they say about making your luck.
And even more impressive is that with this Seb is doing no sort of cautious cruise and collect. On the contrary his aggression when in his relentless mode seems to be as high, or even higher, than ordinarily. Think of how he had a desperate, no holds barred, battle wheel-to-wheel with Lewis Hamilton in Spain (to the point of running him out of road at one point).
Even more impressive is that with this Seb is doing no sort of cautious cruise and collect. On the contrary his aggression when in his relentless mode seems to be as high, or even higher, than ordinarily.
Think also of his various overtakes in coming through the pack in Canada, not least his almost eyes-shut lunge past Esteban Ocon late on, wherein he looked all set to spear into the side of Ocon’s team mate Sergio Perez, yet Seb was pulling up just enough short. Even with all that he had to lose – a DNF would have meant his title lead, carefully built up, would have been completely wiped out at a stroke. The points for sitting in sixth place would have been fine for us mere mortals.
And he knew the risk, yet accepted it. “Full risk, full on – I wanted to get past, full stop,” is how he described it afterwards.
And as outlined it’s happened before. One curious aspect of Vettel’s four titles in a row – likely reflecting that the annual topline outcome looks so devastating – is that we often talk of it retrospectively like it was an uninterrupted four-year walk in the park for him. Not so – those in 2010 and 2012 were not clinched until the final race of course, and both involved fine late-season runs to overcome opponents. But even the other two weren’t all that straightforward, and may indeed provide our closer parallel to now.
Even in these seasons Seb rarely qualified on pole by several tenths nor won by half a minute. He wasn’t even joined on the front row by his team mate all that often. Instead Seb’s crushing consistency and ability to find the tiniest decimal points extra that barely existed often tilted the balance his way.
Mention 2013 and again our immediate association is with a Seb walkover. Understandable, he won the final nine rounds and took the title by upwards of 150 points after all. But, while it’s easily forgotten given what came later, in the first part of that year Seb was by no means on easy street.
His Red Bull didn’t care for the curious steel-belted Pirelli tyres of the time and many thought Fernando Alonso and Ferrari the quicker package, certainly on race day. But Seb remained a step ahead, mainly via the outlined maximising of things without fail. And that’s against Nando – known for his consistency above all else.
If this from 2013 all sounds a bit familiar to what we’re getting now that’s because it is. Plotting his chart at the highest level with scarcely a flicker while his at-least-as-quick-in-theory chief title rival oscillates.
In Malaysia when Alonso removed himself by choosing (curiously) not to replace a damaged front wing, Seb took full advantage by winning (via some controversy, but that’s another story). In Bahrain Alonso was expected to dominate, but Seb pipped him in qualifying then successfully toughed it out with him to lead him in the race, even before Alonso dropped back with DRS problems. Seb of course won again.
In Australia, China and Spain with the car off the pace Seb still brought it home for the best possible result (a third and two fourth places). In crazy Monaco while Alonso was stuck in the pack and overtaken left, right and centre on the way to seventh place, Seb floated above the uproar and got second. In Canada Seb topped a wet qualifying session while Alonso was nowhere, setting the German up for victory.
And if this all sounds a bit familiar to what we’re getting now that’s because it is. Plotting his chart at the highest level with scarcely a flicker while his at-least-as-quick-in-theory chief title rival oscillates. Bahrain as well as Canada’s treacherous quali together show also that again this was no craven cruise – Seb four years ago was expertly and aggressively dancing on the very outer edge of risk. It’s happening again.
Silverstone’s tyre failure fest in 2013 necessitated a tyre spec change that suited Seb and Red Bull (indeed he won 10 of the remaining 11 rounds). But even at that point – as outlined without necessarily having the quickest package on race day – Seb led the table by near enough a race win. And his lead would have been a lot greater had he not retired from the lead late on in Silverstone with gearbox problems.
This season there remain doubts around whether Seb and Ferrari can indeed continue their march to titles. At the broadest level there is a long stretch of the season to go, and more specifically Mercedes retains much room for improvement, particularly as its highly-rated technical head James Allison gets his feet more under the table. The turnaround since Monaco demonstrates the silver squad’s not relenting.
If Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton are to win their titles this year then they likely will have to leave little out on the track, as the probability is that their chief rival will leave nothing out on the track at all. As he’s done it before. And it’s happening again.
Plus Ferrari’s current technical team remains a somewhat unknown quantity, and a few started the season thinking the fine car was likely more the product of the self-same Allison.
But then again there has seemed little wrong with Ferrari’s in-season upgrades thus far. And for what it’s worth in his previous championship runs Seb’s tended to get noticeably stronger as the season has gone on.
If Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton are to win their titles this year then they likely will have to leave little out on the track, as the probability is that their chief rival will leave nothing out on the track at all. As he’s done it before. And it’s happening again.
