Red Bull was tipped to challenge Mercedes for overall honours in Formula 1 this season but instead Ferrari has emerged from the doldrums to lead the charge, creating a close fight between the scarlet machines and the Silver Arrows. Red Bull, meanwhile, has been left a distant third, adrift of the front running duo but comfortably clear of the midfield pack. This weekend’s Spanish Grand Prix may determine Red Bull’s outlook for the remainder of the campaign, amid the introduction of a revised RB13.
Pre-season is typically a notoriously tricky indicator of outright potential but, with the benefit of hindsight, the form displayed at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya in early March has proved to be relatively accurate. Red Bull was then subdued, lacking pace and mileage compared to Ferrari/Mercedes, confused by some set-up directions, with drivers Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen talking down its prospects. The opening quartet of events continued that theme.
The quickest Red Bull driver qualified 1.3s off pole in Australia and China, 0.8s down in Bahrain, and 1.7s back in Russia, albeit with the caveat that Red Bull has never performed strongly at the Sochi Autodrom.
Only in Australia has a Red Bull driver finished within a half a minute of the winner – Verstappen, in Australia, aided by the use of the quicker Super Softs in the final stint. In China – the only race which both have finished – Verstappen and Ricciardo finished 45s adrift of Lewis Hamilton, Ricciardo was 39s behind in Bahrain, while In Russia Verstappen was a minute down on Valtteri Bottas. Whatever way you swing it, it is not championship-challenging pace.
There is, of course, the deficit still faced by power unit supplier Renault – despite the relative parity claims of the FIA’s performance analysis – with upgrades from the French manufacturer still in the pipeline, to be introduced at some point across the coming months. The focus on producing quicker, more spectacular cars means everyone has more downforce available, which in turn places a greater emphasis on power.
Yet while the power unit requires improving, the chassis remains a bugbear for Red Bull, with both aspects needing to be refined. As the first European round of the year, allied by the correlation possible due to extensive testing at the venue, the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya is pinpointed as the location for major upgrades.
However, with updates arriving regularly up and down the paddock, Red Bull will be chasing an ever-moving target.
“We've all got a good idea of where we stand now, and I know we still need to see where we are in Barcelona, but unfortunately we're too far away from the front at the moment,” said Ricciardo in his latest Red Bull column.
“Even if we have a good update in Barcelona, it's hard to see how that instantly puts us on the top step, and we all know that. It could take a little while for us to be able to fight for some wins, but we're optimistic we can make up some good ground.
“It's frustrating that we've started a bit further back than what we hoped we would, but more generally it's positive for the sport that we don't have Mercedes dominating by two seconds a lap again and there's some competition up front with Ferrari giving them a hard time.
“That's definitely a good sign for the sport based on what has happened the last few years – it'd be nice if we can join in though, and I'm optimistic we can.”
Reliability has also been a concern – with three retirements from four races – but on a performance front, Red Bull can at least draw confidence from 2016. One year ago, it also made a similarly subdued start before making gains to emerge as Mercedes’ primary challenger, with Ricciardo taking pole in Monaco.
“I look back at least year and think in [Russia] qualifying we were over 1.5s off pole and then we went to Barcelona and we were about half a second off pole and we made some gains and then obviously in Monaco we were quick,” Ricciardo commented. “It’s a time of the year where we should start to see these updates take place and some performance really start to come out of the car.”
The caveat, of course, is that mid-season revolutions rarely happen in a sport as technologically advanced as Formula 1. In recent campaigns, only in the quirky 2009 season did form fluctuate sufficiently to enable a team to vault from also-rans to race-winners, in that instance McLaren. If you don’t start at the front, it’s extremely rare that you’ll end up there, particularly when facing such a deficit, both across one-lap and in race-trim.
“It'll be a reset for us to get a read as to how much improving we need to do,” Ricciardo says of the fifth round of the campaign at Formula 1’s preferred testing venue.
“There's no magic bullet in F1 that's going to see us start winning every race from here, that sort of thing just doesn't exist.
“So I'm hoping we can be pleasantly surprised with any gains we make at the weekend.
“Spain will probably shape the season from Barcelona until Budapest and the mid-year break, so it's an important one for us to get as right as we can.”
How Red Bull fares around the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya this weekend will certainly define whether it can have any influence in the title fight, or whether Ricciardo and Verstappen will be set for a frustrating year of scrapping for fifth place finishes under normal circumstances.
