The 2016 Formula 1 season is now well and truly over, with the entertaining and tense finale at Abu Dhabi now a fresh reminder that just when you think things are getting rather stale the sport can surprise you with an utter thriller.
With all of the teams now looking ahead to the 2017 season and the stark change in technical regulations which will result in wider Pirelli tyres, louder and more downforce driven cars, almost all of the vacant seats on the 2017 grid have been filled, save for the usual spots much further down the order.
But all of a sudden every F1 driver on the grid will now be frantically scouring their contracts in search of an easy and painless way of leaving their team, because the most dominant team in recent F1 history now has a vacancy, albeit alongside one of the finest drivers of the era – Lewis Hamilton.
Yes, that’s correct, F1’s brand new champion Nico Rosberg has made what could possibly have been the hardest and bravest decision of his career by announcing he is to retire from the sport whilst on top, becoming the first driver to do so since Alain Prost won his third championship crown with Williams in 1993.
The full explanation for Rosberg’s decision could remain a secret for many years to come, especially with his preference of keeping his personal life as quiet as possible, and understandably so.
But regardless of his decision to step away from the sport he has finally just conquered, every driver on the grid will now being eyeing that glowing vacancy at Mercedes. Yes they will have to contend with Hamilton as a team-mate, a driver who is still vying for more victories and world championships.
However, when you look at Mercedes’ record since 2014, even being pitched against a driver of Hamilton’s calibre would be a mouth-watering prospect that might just be worth the upheaval of breaking an existing contract.
Of course breaking a contract in F1 is no easy task, but it can be done and more than likely would require the team the driver would be joining to pay off the remainder of the contract to the team he is leaving. So for Mercedes to pluck out a driver of their choice, so to speak, they would be forced to pay extensively for such a luxury.
For the 2010 season Ferrari paid off Kimi Raikkonen’s contract so they could sign Fernando Alonso when it became crystal clear the Finn had no interest in racing any longer, a trick of the trade which would have to take place if Mercedes wished to sign a driver to replace Rosberg who is currently contracted with a team.
Before we go gallivanting off into hypothetical notions as to who Mercedes could lure away from their teams, lets first look at who is readily available to replace Rosberg without the headaches of discussing the intricacies of existing contracts.
Pascal Wehrlein is the prime target for Rosberg’s fresh and still warm seat at Mercedes, with the Manor racer already clocking up considerable mileage with the German marque during various test days as recent as the Tuesday after the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix after Hamilton was sidelined.
But how would the German youngster compare to Hamilton in a car that is effectively lightyears ahead of Manor in all areas? Mercedes has always stipulated how winning the constructors’ championship is equally as important as winning the drivers’ championship, and to do that you need both drivers to be able to win races and even dominate races.
So if not Wehrlein, then who? Esteban Gutierrez is currently looking for a seat but with all due respect is far from the pedigree that Mercedes will be looking for as a team-mate to Hamilton. Felipe Nasr is also looking for a 2017 drive, but once again is a driver that needs a certain degree of refinement before he can jump into a team like Mercedes.
Four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel’s contract with Ferrari is up at the end of the 2017 season and the German has certainly not enjoyed a very productive year with the Scuderia, failing to win a race all season despite perfect opportunities to do so in Australia and Canada.
The former Red Bull racer dominated the sport between 2010 and 2013, but has failed to come even remotely close to a repeat of such successes at Ferrari. There’s no doubt the German is still an exceptionally quick driver and would certainly give Hamilton a run for his money, but would Mercedes want two drivers that would almost immediately begin to bicker.
Another candidate who would be extremely eager to be given a chance of driving for Mercedes is Fernando Alonso, who is contracted with McLaren until the end of next season. Admittedly the two-tine world champion hasn’t won a race since 2013 and has endured two years with the highly uncompetitive McLaren-Honda, but during the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix last month he insisted he is still aiming to win a third world title.
Although Mercedes would present him with a prime opportunity to add one or maybe even two more world championships to his name, the simple fact that he would be partnering Hamilton once again is more than enough to deter Mercedes from thinking along those lines.
The duo partnered each other in 2007 at McLaren during Hamilton’s debut season, and the tension within the team reached breaking point during the Hungarian Grand Prix before Alonso returned to Renault for 2008.
One thing Mercedes do not want is a partnership that could result in Hamilton and his team-mate-to-be falling out, with scenes like those in Spain and Austria earlier this year being repeated when Hamilton and Rosberg collided.
So who could fill Rosberg’s vacancy and tick all the boxes? Mercedes will want a proven, quick, competitive and consistent driver who is not going to be detrimental to the equilibrium within the team. That rules out big names such as Alonso and Vettel, with Red Bull drivers Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo locked down at the Milton Keynes-based team.
Enter Valtteri Bottas. The Finn currently races for Williams and next season is expected to lead the team as their number one driver alongside Canadian rookie Lance Stroll after veteran Felipe Massa’s retirement. Bottas can be quick, consistent and importantly hasn’t yet won a Grand Prix so shouldn’t present himself as a threat to Hamilton straight away.
In 2014 Bottas finished fourth in the drivers’ championship and has visited the podium nine times so far in his career, so he is no stranger to battling at the sharp end of the order alongside big names such as Vettel, Raikkonen and Verstappen.
Not to mention that Bottas was also previously managed by Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff, who at the time co-owned the Williams F1 team where Bottas made his debut in 2013. The only question is would Mercedes be happy paying out the remainder of his contact with Williams so he could join Mercedes, and would Williams be happy letting their only experienced driver leave the team?
But remember Mercedes currently provide engines to Williams, so a case of ‘you scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours’ could be implemented if complications arose.
However if Williams refuse to budge and remain intent on keeping Bottas for 2017, which they could be forgiven for considering Bottas will be regarded as their senior driver, who else on the grid who is proven enough to bring in the points yet not upset the applecart with Hamilton?
Why not Spanish racer Carlos Sainz? The Toro Rosso driver finished sixth on three occasions in 2016, his personal best despite all of the limelight resting on Verstappen who started the season alongside Sainz before replacing Daniil Kvyat at Red Bull and winning his first race in Spain.
After rejoining Red Bull Kvyat only finished in the points on three occasions in contrast to Sainz’s ten, yet was still retained for the 2017 season.
The defining factor in whether Red Bull would be interested in letting an exciting young prospect like Sainz go to rival team Mercedes is the fact that there is no room at the inn in Red Bull’s main team what with Ricciardo and Verstappen seemingly nailed down tight for the foreseeable future.
A driver like Sainz is a complete waste of talent at Toro Rosso, and let’s face it all parties involved could be content with the outcome. Sainz would get a shot at a huge team with realistic chances of victory at hand, while Red Bull would reap the financial reward for letting him go and likely replace him with reigning GP2 champion Pierre Gasly.
Some fans on social media are already calling for Mercedes to get in touch with Jenson Button, who announced he would be taking a sabbatical from the sport in 2017 with a very slim possibility of him returning in 2018.
If the 2009 champion had not left the sport then he would undoubtedly be an ideal candidate to replace Rosberg, with the Briton having already partnered Hamilton at McLaren between 2010 and 2012 and doing so in relatively harmonious fashion.
But it was clearly evident after the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix that Button had already mentally moved on from the world of F1, with the Briton laughing and joking on TV after the race despite retiring during the early stages with a suspension issue. Therefore persuading him to rejoin the sport only weeks after retiring would be a long shot, but not unheard of when you consider the return of drivers such as Nigel Mansell, Michael Schumacher and Raikkonen.
Ultimately whoever ends up replacing Rosberg at Mercedes will have big shoes to fill, with the German competing with Mercedes since their return as a manufacturer in 2010 alongside Schumacher. Admittedly he was somewhat overshadowed by team-mate Hamilton, but he persevered and finally reached his personal Everest with the championship crown this year.
Although life as a Mercedes driver might have looked like a walk in the park from the outside looking in throughout recent yeas, there’s no denying that whoever replaces Rosberg will be in for a stressful rollercoaster of a ride. They will be immediately expected to deliver, and alongside one of the best drivers in the sport.
Who says modern F1 is dull?
