Daniel Chalmers takes a look at each driver and their chances as we head into what could be one of the hardest seasons to predict.
Nico Hulkenberg (Force India)
Hulkenberg has been unlucky in the driver market losing out because he doesn’t bring money to a team. Ferrari then opted for Kimi Raikkonen over him.
He has all the attributes of a top driver. He is quick, a brilliant racer, hardly makes mistakes and he gets the maximum out of the car every single weekend. At Sauber last season he took the car to places it had no right being. The way he held up a train of faster cars lap after lap in Korea was impressive. It would have been so easy to make a tiny mistake under pressure.
In one of the best cars he would be vying for the world championship. If I was Ferrari team boss I would have chosen Nico over Kimi. Out of the midfield drivers he stands out like a sore thumb, and at the age of 26 he hasn’t reached his peak. He can get even better. He would have been a better driver choice for Ferrari in the long term.
He might have missed out on the Lotus drive, but he has lucked into a very quick Force India with the Mercedes power unit.
If his car is within range of the front there is no reason why he can’t get involved in the battle for victories. He might end up battling directly with the Ferrari guys at the start of the year. He could show them exactly what they (and other top teams) are missing out on. It’s a great opportunity for him.
Final Verdict: Nico has ended up in a quick Force India. He will continue to show why he should be with one of the top teams. Expect a few podiums from him this year at the very least. A race victory isn’t impossible either.
#11 Sergio Perez (Force India)
Perez had quite a tough experience at McLaren. Now all of a sudden he finds himself at Force India trying to resurrect his career. However he has done very well to land the seat. He hasn’t dropped too far down the grid and the car is looking in great shape.
On his day Sergio is a very quick driver and capable of racing alongside the best drivers and getting the better of them. The problem is that those days don’t come often enough. There are just far too many weekends where he leaves time on the table, and doesn’t finish where his car deserved to be.
He is up against a team mate that does get the best out of the car every weekend, so he risks being exposed if he doesn’t up his game. In fact you could argue that Hulkenberg is a far tougher team mate than Button.
At Force India there will be less pressure than at McLaren. He will have learnt a lot from his season at Woking and he will be able to use that to his advantage in 2014.
Some drivers do extremely well, and enjoy a little purple patch in their career when they leave a top team and move lower down the grid. The drop in pressure and media interest can do a driver the world of good. They relax and suddenly end up driving better.
Final Verdict: I expect a similar performance to 2012 where gets two or three giant killing results. Overall though Hulkenberg will be the Force India driver that scores good points more consistently.
#21 Esteban Gutierrez (Sauber)
2013 was a very tough baptism for Esteban. In the first half of the season he had a very difficult car to drive, and when you haven’t had that many miles in a F1 car beforehand it makes life hard. He also had one of the best drivers in Hulkenberg as his team mate.
He was certainly lacking pace and made mistakes in the first half of the season. However as the car improved in the second half of 2013 he started to make steps forward too. He was closer to Nico’s postcode in races, and performed brilliantly at the Japanese GP finishing seventh.
He now has the difficult learning curve of 2013 out of the way. This season every driver on the grid has a huge learning curve so that could level the playing field a little bit. Rookies also normally make strong progress in their second year in the sport.
His second season in F1 will show whether he is a driver that is capable of staying in the sport for the foreseeable future.
Final Verdict: I think Esteban will find his second season a lot less demanding than his first. However I am not convinced he will make enough progress to sustain a long F1 career.
#99 Adrian Sutil (Sauber)
It’s going to be strange seeing Sutil driving with a different team. Apart from that year on the sidelines he has driven for the same team for his whole career.
He is another of those frustrating drivers who is exceptionally strong on his day. He is also one of the best drivers in the wet. Let’s not forget that drive in Monaco back in 2008 in the slowest car on the grid. He could have finished fourth if he hadn’t got taken out by Raikkonen.
Last year he had that storming race in Monaco where he overtook a couple of big names at the hairpin. Then there was the opener in Melbourne where he featured at the front for large periods of the race.
He has had some great highlights throughout his career. Those days when he performs at his best he is a match for any of F1’s best drivers. The problem is he has never been consistent enough over the course of a full season. That’s what’s really stopped him progressing further up the grid in F1.
This is probably his last chance to really make something of himself in F1.
Final Verdict: Sutil can be a really good driver, and is a smart acquisition for a team like Sauber. Unfortunately it’s hard to see him ever doing quite enough to move any higher up the grid. He will always be a useful midfield driver.
#25 Jean-Eric Vergne (Toro Rosso)
Losing the Red Bull seat to Daniel Ricciardo was a huge blow for Jean-Eric. He has the makings of being a great Grand Prix driver. However it is still qualifying that is letting him down. It’s when the pressure is on in the last run of either Q1 or Q2 that he falls short.
He has strong race pace. The few times he has qualified well he has tended to stay there in the race, unlike his team mate. He is very strong in the wet and his race craft is good too. In terms of being reliably fast week in week out Daniel is the more consistent, and probably why he nicked that Red Bull seat.
Ultimately this year is a last chance saloon. He simply has to beat new team mate Kyvat to have any chance of remaining in Red Bull’s thoughts. He needs to make the most of his new team mate’s inexperience in the first few races and put him under pressure immediately.
If he can have a good season there is still an opportunity in the sister team. Ricciardo may not cope with the pressure, and Vettel may decide to jump ship somewhere else if his car isn’t up to it.
Final Verdict: Vergne could surprise us this year. Now that he is not up against Ricciardo’s one lap pace in the same team, it could remove that pressure that’s held him back on Saturdays. I don’t see him in a Red Bull in 2015. I do see him hanging around in F1 though, even if he is dropped by Toro Rosso.
#26 Daniil Kvyat (Toro Rosso)
Kvyat is another young Red Bull driver who has been thrown in at the deep end at a young age (19). He certainly has talent and speed as shown by winning the GP3 championship last year. The series introduced a faster car last season so it’s become a great title to win, and a better indicator of young driver talent.
His two practice outings last year were also very strong. In Austin he set a competitive time only a couple of tenths slower than Daniel Ricciardo. He looked completely at home in the wet conditions at Interlagos, and was eighth quickest in the practise session there.
So the signs are very good. If Red Bull is patient with him then they could have a great driver on their hands.
Ultimately how he compares with Vergne will be vital. If Vergne beats him convincingly then his time on the Red Bull programme is as good as over. It’s a cut throat programme and Red Bull only wants mega stars.
His team mate’s weakness over a single lap is an area he will need to exploit. Being ahead on the grid would then give him the upper hand in races.
Final Verdict: For me it’s at least a year too soon for Kvyat to make his debut. However once he is up to speed I have a gut feeling he could end up being one of the very few gems of the Red Bull driver’s programme. Fingers crossed Red Bull give him the time to get up to speed.
#77 Valterri Bottas (Williams)
2014 will give us a better idea whether we have a star on our hands. He didn’t get many chances to shine last year. However he did consistently bring his car home, didn’t make many errors and beat Maldonado in qualifying over the season.
What’s impressive is that he grabbed the very few chances he did get. This included his third on the grid in the wet at Montreal. He got a decent haul of points in Austin on one of the very few weekends Williams were in decent shape.
This season he has got a much stronger car and a better yardstick in Felipe Massa as a team mate. We will get a better indication of his talent.
To prove that he is a star and that he should be driving for one of the big teams, it’s vital that he wins the battle with his team mate this year. It won’t look great in the eyes of other team principals if Felipe has the upper hand.
Final Verdict: It’s going to be a huge season for Valterri. In a fast car I think we are going to see him featuring at the sharp end regularly. A race win isn’t out of the question.
#19 Felipe Massa (Williams)
Massa is going to be a new man in 2014. Being Fernando Alonso’s team mate is a very difficult task, particularly when nearly all of the focus is on the Spaniard.
Felipe is a driver that needs a lot of love and attention to thrive, or a cuddle as Peter Sauber once put it. He is clearly going to get a lot more of that as the lead driver at Williams. That’s going to make a huge difference to his form.
What mustn’t be forgotten that he is still a very quick driver. He showed that last season after out-qualifying Alonso on various occasions. Although he had a bad 2011, a diabolical first half to 2012, he has been pretty quick since.
He knows how to win races and if he gets the chance in this fast Williams he is more than capable.
Final Verdict: I can see Felipe being one of the revelations of the season. He has a real chance of winning one of the opening races. He will have a great twilight period of his career away from the pressure and spotlight he had at Ferrari.
#04 Max Chilton (Marussia)
There is no doubt that money is a huge factor in the team’s decision to keep him in the seat.
He didn’t have a bad first season though finishing every single race, and didn’t make many mistakes. Many pay drivers have done much worse than Max.
He has to continue that reliability this season, but pace wise he needs to get a lot closer to team mate Bianchi if he is to have any chance of staying in F1. At times last season the gap between the pair was just too large.
However his finishing record may well stand him in good stead if we see a lot of attrition in the opening races. Even if Marussia are off the pace only reliability may be required to score points. From that respect Max may be the perfect driver for them this year, rather than someone who tries to out-drive the car and bins it in the gravel.
2014 may end up being a season where Tortoises can sometimes beat Cheetahs.
Final Verdict: Max isn’t quick enough in my opinion to sustain a long career in F1. However I am pretty sure he will score points in the opening races. Keeping the car on the track may reap more rewards than pace for the teams at the back in the early stages of 2014.
#17 Jules Bianchi (Marussia)
Bianchi had some fine moments last year. It’s always hard to fully assess a driver’s ability when they are in a performance vacuum. You can’t really compare him to any other drivers outside of Marussia and Caterham.
Generally he was the best of the backmarker drivers last year. There were times particularly in the first half of the year when he left them behind.
The signs of star potential are there. Marussia look closer to the back of the midfield group than they have ever been before. If he can get himself in amongst the midfield and race them on merit it will certainly catch the eyes of the F1 paddock.
You can tell that he should be driving for a team driving higher up the grid, and that has to be his target for 2015.
Final Verdict: Jules reminds of me Alonso and Mark Webber who started their careers at the back of the grid and still stood out. I think Jules can achieve the same this season, and get a promotion to a midfield team in 2015.
#10 Kamui Kobayashi (Caterham)
It’s great to see Kobayashi back on the F1 grid. He certainly deserves a place amongst the best 22 drivers in the world. The thing that separates him from the rest is his bravery when going wheel to wheel. Generally he pulls the moves off without causing accidents, and in untraditional overtaking spots.
It has to be said that he isn’t the most consistent driver. On his day he can be very quick as that podium at Suzuka in 2012 demonstrated. However there are other weekends where he can be a bit anonymous, and arguably that cost him his place at Sauber.
Unfortunately his main problem this year is going to be the car. We are probably only going to see him go wheel to wheel with cars when he is getting lapped, as Caterham seem quite adrift at the moment.
Final Verdict: I am a big fan of Kamui but sadly I can’t really see what he will be able to achieve this year. I think he may have been better off accepting Ferrari’s offer to drive one of their GT cars. He would have had a salary and a chance to win races.
#09 Marcus Ericsson (Caterham)
Ericsson comes into F1 after four years in the GP2 series. He’s never really set the world alight in the series, but had a solid year in 2013 where he finished 6th in the championship.
The majority of his best results last year came in the feature race, so he hasn’t just relied on the reverse grid in the sprint race to get his best results.
However not featuring high up the championship order doesn’t mean you can’t make a successful transition to F1. Team mate Kobayashi is proof of that. In all honesty he was a bit of an also-ran in the championship but made a very impressive F1 debut in Abu Dhabi back in 2009, and has captured the imagination of fans ever since.
The good thing for all three rookies on the grid this year is that they are not the only drivers having to do a lot of learning this year. Every driver has a lot of adapting to do to get on top of the new F1 regulations. Magnussen, Kyvat and Ericsson don’t really know anything different from the F1 cars they are about to drive.
2014 is going to be a steep learning curve for Marcus. He will have done well if he can get on terms with his more experienced team mate.
Final Verdict: Ericsson certainly won’t be slow but he needs to do something pretty spectacular to stand out. Whilst I am sure he will do a competent job for Caterham I can’t see him emulating what Webber or Alonso did for Minardi.