Sebastian Vettel can sleep easy now, knowing he can secure the championship at the next race in a fortnights time at the Singapore Grand Prix.
Having taken victory at the Italian GP on Sunday, the German extended his lead over second placed man Fernando Alonso to112 points – more than four race wins.
If Vettel is to win his second title in two weeks time, he needs Fernando Alonso to finish no higher than fourth place. As the below table shows [Fig:1], Vettel can fail to finish every race as long as he wins around the Marina Bay, whilst the Ferrari driver finishes no higher than 4th, even if Alonso then went onto win all six remaining races.
He also needs both Jenson Button and Mark Webber to finish no higher than 3rd.
Fig:1.
| Pos. | Driver |  |  |  |  |  |  | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01. | Vettel | 1st | DNF | DNF | DNF | DNF | DNF | 309 |
| 02. | Alonso | 4th | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | 309 |
| 03. | Button/Webber | 3rd | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | 307 |
The above scenario would put Vettel and Alonso on identical points, meaning the championship would be decided on the number of wins, however with the Red Bull driver having taken eight wins already [Fig:2], it’s impossible for anyone to beat him, though both Button and teammate Lewis Hamilton could equal him, as they have both won two races apiece.
Interestingly, if we had introduced Bernie Ecclestone’s medal system, which awards the championship to the driver with the most 1st places, then 2nd places and so on… the title would now be over.
Fig:2.
| Pos. | Driver | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01. | S. Vettel | 8 | 4 | 0 |
| 02. | J. Button | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 03. | L. Hamilton | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 04. | F. Alonso | 1 | 3 | 3 |
In the worst case scenario for Vettel, if Alonso won all six remaining races, Vettel would need to finish 6th in six races, and he would still become the 2011 champion.
