Mercedes predicted that George Russell would only be able to score minor points in the Qatar Grand Prix after his opening lap clash with team-mate Lewis Hamilton.
Having qualified second and third, Mercedes were aiming to apply pressure on polesitter and eventual race winner Max Verstappen.
However, Hamilton’s attempt to swing around the outside of the top two into Turn 1 saw Russell get sandwiched, resulting in contact between the two Mercedes cars.
Hamilton was pitched into a race-ending spin, while Russell continued at the back of the field, albeit requiring an immediate pit stop to replace his damaged front wing.
With the FIA mandating maximum 18-lap stint lengths amid tyre concerns, Russell eventually utilised an ambitious four-stop strategy to recover all the way back to fourth.
Mercedes Trackside Engineering Director Andrew Shovlin admits that the team had only initially anticipated the Briton hauling himself into the lower reaches of the top 10.
“Given that we were put right to the back after that lap one incident, the early predictions were coming in back of the points but not scoring many points,” Shovlin explained on Mercedes’ race debrief video.
“As the race went on those predictions got better and better and ultimately were indicating that he would finish fourth place.”
Expanding on Russell’s comeback drive, Shovlin asserts that the 25-year-old was able to defy Mercedes’ expectations by negotiating the traffic effectively.
“Basically, he was able to overtake, he was able to get through key cars early on,” he highlighted.
“Also, once he got into free air, we could see that the race pace was actually really good and that was the thing that allowed him to make up so many places.
“On top of that, the strategy team did a great job of re-optimising the race, trying to make the most of a bad situation, and fourth was a great reward for their efforts.”
The collision between the two Mercedes cars stemmed from the duo starting on alternative tyres. While Russell matched Verstappen’s choice of the Medium, Hamilton was fitted with the Soft.
Although Shovlin echoed the drivers’ statements by revealing there were pre-race discussions held, he underlines that team orders were not imposed at any stage.
“We discussed the start tyre choice with both drivers on Sunday morning, and there was always going to be a chance that Lewis on the soft tyre was gonna get a better start and overtake George before Turn 1,” Shovlin conceded.
“That was always considered. But they were aware they were on different strategies, it was important that they didn’t lose time racing each other and that was clear.
“But, we weren’t imposing team orders in the race and what happened at Turn 1 was simply a mistake.”
Shovlin explains that Hamilton started on the Soft compound because he was more limited on stint life than Russell, particularly regarding the optimal Medium tyre.
“The Medium that he was gonna have to run was so short on life, it was actually very similar in range to the soft,” he noted.
“We elected Lewis to start on the Soft because of that better grip off the line, and the fact that it was unlikely to be any downsides in terms of range.”
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