Monza. The word alone conjures images of Ferrari, screaming engines, and outrageous overtaking moves. But, perhaps most iconically, the sight most people associate with Monza is the post-race invasion by the Tifosi. The crowds descend to its magnificent podium and stretch huge Ferrari flags that cover swathes of the loyal fandom. There really is nowhere else like it on the calendar.
But as Formula 1 prepares for the end of the European season, it’s important to note that we are just one race in after the mandatory summer shutdown. Teams and drivers are still finding their feet, while the quest to find more performance never ceases. This means there are still a lot of unanswered questions about the competitive order, and whether swings in the pendulum of momentum will continue, or more upsets to the status quo await.
Naturally, some have more to lose than others, and in some cases, significant ground to make up or to validate their new upgrades. One important caveat underpins everything, however: Monza itself. This is a power circuit, with very little in the way of heavy braking, so expect super-clipping here to be one of the more noticeable attributes and buzzwords of the weekend.
Aston Martin: panic or fix successful?
Aston Martin walked away with two points in Zandvoort, a remarkable achievement considering just how cut adrift it was during the first half of the season. The upgrades applied in Hungary transformed the ill-handling AMR26, but Honda’s much vaunted second attempt at a power unit in 2026 seemed to land on a bit of a whimper. But look beneath the headlines, and we see a carefully calculated weekend.
The horsepower deficit to its rivals prior to its Zandvoort upgrade was rumoured to be around 100bhp, a chasm in F1 terms. Honda was prepared for the media flurry in the Netherlands, even jokingly arriving at a media session with a piece of paper telling reporters not to ask how much horsepower it had managed to claw back.
Jokes aside, a double Q1 elimination did not exactly raise spirits. Those two points on Sunday could prove crucial for Fernando Alonso to see enough progress to stay in the sport, the Spaniard’s future not exactly secure. Next weekend he faces another challenging weekend, the story of his season.
Monza is about as ideal to test Honda’s engine upgrades as ice hockey taking place on an exquisitely tended football ground. While all teams are expected to struggle, Aston Martin faces a potentially demoralising weekend in Italy. The gains made by Honda are welcome, but they are still far too small to propel it further up the order. Bad execution secured Alonso’s Zandvoort elimination, but Q2 could still be a distant pipedream come Saturday afternoon at Monza if Honda’s latest attempts to close the power deficit prove too minor.
George Russell’s dying championship bid
No driver likes to be told to move over for their teammate, doubly so when in a championship battle. But one does have to ask whether Russell is in a title fight anymore. Realistically, he is in damage limitation mode, as his hopes continue to dwindle.
Kimi Antonelli once again had the measure of the Briton in Zandvoort, and while he inherited third in the closing stages, he is now 59 points behind his 19-year-old teammate with just 10 races remaining. Ferrari’s poor strategy cost the Scuderia a potential podium, but they can’t rely on that in every round as the season moves towards its climax.
Russell’s angry radio messages in Zandvoort indicate he is still not ready to acquiesce to Antonelli in his title ambitions. On paper, he has every reason to; he remains well within striking distance of Antonelli, but that window is rapidly decreasing. Now tied on points with Hamilton, he has a new threat in the form of Lando Norris, although he is 83 points behind the championship leader.
Monza presents one of the few opportunities left for Russell to start making inroads into his teammate’s title lead. He faces an assault from multiple sides: Norris and McLaren’s increased performance, the constant looming threat of Ferrari, and his own inconsistency. That is quite a number of challenges to overcome in the chase for title glory.
Monza will play to the strengths of the W17 and its power unit, which could give it an advantage over rivals. But in order to take advantage of this potential blessing, Russell must simply outperform Antonelli. Given that he only has two wins this season, this looks to be an uphill battle. Rather than Ferrari red, it looks like the Silver Arrows will be the ones to beat. For the sake of his championship bid, Russell must be the one ahead at the chequered flag.
Will Ferrari spoil Lewis Hamilton’s homecoming?
Monza acts as a very special event: Lewis Hamilton’s first Italian GP for Ferrari. Few drivers ever experience such a unique race weekend. While the support given to a driver is absolutely unequivocal, it also comes with intense pressure that is unrivalled anywhere else.
Given that Hamilton has finally taken his first victory in red, the Tifosi will have exceedingly high expectations for a follow-up win, made all the more special on home soil. In short: nothing other than the perfect fairy tale will do at Monza, and that presents somewhat of a challenge for a team that is not exactly known for making the best decisions under pressure.
Ferrari once again made questionable choices in Zandvoort, enraging Hamilton over the radio, who accused them of wasting time and throwing away results. That was on a circuit where the Scuderia had no association or vested interest. Should Monza throw up anything remotely unpredictable, Ferrari will be forced into making decisions that will either make or break its race in front of an expectant capacity crowd.
Monza will test both Hamilton and Ferrari’s ability to race under extreme pressure. You can bet the teams have discussed every scenario in the book, no matter how remotely absurd or abstract. The question of whether it can act on this in the heat of the moment remains to be seen.
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