Motorsport Week Editor Jack Oliver Smith looks ahead to this weekend’s Hungarian Grand Prix, and assesses who may come out on top on one of Formula 1‘s quiet gems.
For a track venue that’s twisty, dusty, hot, bothersome and therefore lacking the out-and-out entertainment factor that many other classics produce, the Hungarian Grand Prix is an oddly romantic race, from the point of view of a fan’s rose-tinted spectacles.
One mere thought of the Hungaroring and I’m transported to Nelson Piquet sliding his Williams past Ayrton Senna at Turn 1 on full opposite lock; Michael Schumacher setting an abundance of qualifying-level pace laps to beat the McLarens in 1998 [and duly doing so], and replaying all other classic moments in the View-Master of my mind with the tune of the Blue Danube Waltz playing faintly over the top.
I’m a romantic at heart, in case you couldn’t tell.
The track, debuting in 1986, is one that has scarcely changed over the years, and has been the site of seismic moments across the careers of many drivers. It’s hosted some drivers’ maiden wins, made seasons, contributed to some title challenges ending, and in 1992, even decided the title, through Nigel Mansell’s second place securing him the crown as early as August.
Can Mercedes outrun Ferrari and Red Bull?
It is a unique track with unique charms and unique challenges. Perhaps a trifle dusty off the racing line, and often very hot, which, accompanying the twisty layout, will make it a cumbersome and mentally exhausting challenge for drivers. It’s a test of mettle, that’s for sure.
The form book suggests Mercedes will stand to dominate, as its package can generally handle the majority of tracks better than its rivals. The circuit perhaps most comparable in terms of speed and heavy braking areas is Monaco, and Andrea Kimi Antonelli came out of that race the winner. It would be brave to bet against the Silver Arrows here.
In Austria, another circuit of heavy braking areas, Mercedes came out on top again, finishing first and third, with George Russell victorious this time. Ferrari, by contrast, had a wretched race, falling back from a decent qualifying performance to be totally nowhere in the race, and were swamped by both Red Bull and McLaren, as well as falling away from Mercedes completely. In Monaco, however, Lewis Hamilton did run Antonelli close, and the lack of necessity for out and out speed may prove crucial in the Scuderia keeping itself in the fight.
Red Bull could also stand to gain a lot from the weekend. Hungary has been a happy hunting ground for Max Verstappen before, and the combustion side of its in-house power unit could show its strength without being held back too much by the battery, which is letting it down over Mercedes.
Mercedes will need to be on its A Game is in qualifying. Last year, the grid got a shock when Charles Leclerc planted the wretched SF-25 on pole position. The regulations may have changed, but a drivers’ ability to pull something out of the bag around a circuit like this will remain, and if neither Russell nor Antonelli captures the coveted first grid slot, their races could be trickier than they’d like.
For Russell, it is an even more important task. Having been punted off at Les Combes by Lewis Hamilton on Lap 1, he will need to maximise all he can, and rely on a change in fortunes to take a fresh dent out of his teammate’s title advantage, giving him some sense of redress and confidence going into the summer break.
A Verstappen win could help Red Bull keep its prized possession
Back to Red Bull, and what they will be hoping for some stability off-track as well. The Milton Keynes-based squad has had to keep batting away speculation about Verstappen’s future like a persistent and irritating fly. If they can carry the momentum of his unlikely third place in Spa and challenge, at least, for a victory in Budapest, then the summer break will feel at least a little happier, even if it undoubtedly knows that there is no chance of respite from the rumours until Verstappen fully commits one way or the other.
Ferrari is continuing to be the surprise package. The SF-26 is undeniably a great car in many respects, but the power unit is still not quite up to scratch, giving that Mercedes that crucial edge. But with a little bit of luck, and the other areas of prowess have given it a fighting chance. Not so much prancing horse, but more dark horse.
With a Silverstone win and a plucky second place in Belgium, Leclerc is now appearing to be successfully overcoming his issues with the car, taming the lack of instinct he is receiving from it, and showing the form we all know he has. And with Lewis Hamilton still performing at a much higher standard than 2025, the Scuderia has the chance to provide an unlikely onslaught, making Mercedes nervous and unable to relax at any time.
Racing Bulls will more than likely be fighting out in the midfield with Alpine, but with power not as big an advantage, Audi could come into play, especially after having achieved points in Belgium. The German marque’s nifty chassis could prove to be a big difference and they will be hopeful to carry its Monaco practice form into a whole weekend this time.
At the back, Aston Martin had a wretched time of it in Belgium, perhaps even more than usual. Some itchy moments when being precariously close to the 107 percent rule, it was comprehensively beaten by Cadillac, but in Hungary comes the 2.0 version of the AMR26. Even if it brings big changes for the better, it will be likely to still hang around at the back, but provide a big boost for the accompanying engine upgrade in Holland.
With Spa usually bringing a thrilling and exciting race all stemming from the love of the power, Hungary this time be a welcome tonic from a race this year that was fraught with energy harvesting and comparative slowness on the usually exuberantly-fast Spa-Francorchamps.
The Hungaroring has always been the quiet gem of the calendar, and this year, it may stand out from the crowd a little more than usual.
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