With the new Formula 1 season just hours away, Motorsport Week’s team have put their thinking caps on to tell us what they think will transpire over the 2026 campaign
New regulations, new cars, new teams and one new driver, with a few old boys returning. Whether you’re a fan of the new rulebook or not, F1 2026 has a lot of plotlines there to be written, and our writers have given us their predictions for how those plotlines will be looking come the end of the year.
Jack Oliver Smith – Editor
Who will win the Australian GP?
I think the race will be won by George Russell. Provided the Mercedes gets off the line relatively well at least, he should be able to keep out of trouble and command the field, in what appears to be the dominant Mercedes W17.
Who will win both Drivers’ and Constructors’ titles?
The compression ratio rule change means that Mercedes might not hold its advantage for long – even less so if the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian rounds are cancelled – but if it makes good on the time it has, then Russell will be Drivers’ Champion. An intelligent driver whose main strength is consistency, Russell is well-placed to be a quick learner of the new cars, and the comparative inexperience of team-mate Andrea Kimi Antonelli will mean he has the edge. If Antonelli can perform across 2026 in the way he finished 2025, then Mercedes will also tie-up the Constructors’ Championship. But don’t discount Max Verstappen. Ever. You’d be silly to.
What is your bold prediction of the year?
My bold prediction is that Aston Martin’s troubled Honda-powered AMR26 will score points before the end of the season. I believe the chassis is good enough and if Lawrence Stroll and Adrian Newey can successfully crack the whip on its manufacturer, then Fernando Alonso is well-placed to take a few top 10 finishes.
James Phillips – Deputy Editor
Picking a winner for Melbourne is tough, but my money is on George Russell. The W17 looks to be fast, nimble, both driver and car seemingly at one. Aside from the engine compression ratio issue, the Mercedes power unit could also be a winner.
Lewis Hamilton or Charles Leclerc will take the Drivers’ Championship, as the engine compression ratio issue will hurt Mercedes in the second half of the season. Both will start off 2026 slowly, but will come on strong in a car he openly prefers to the ground-effect era.
Similarly, Ferrari will take the Constructors’ Championship, clawing back a sizeable deficit after the summer break, utilising the strong reliability of its power unit, and momentum gained by its two drivers.
My bold prediction is that Audi will score a point on debut as a lot of the midfield will retire.
Anirban Aly Mandal – F1 reporter
Tip for Australia: If pre-season testing is anything to go by, reliability and energy management will be key.
As it has always been with Albert Park, but now more than ever, having your car and PU in the ideal operating window for your push lap will be critical to success.
Tip for Drivers’: Resilience, mental fortitude, and an ability to adapt to the new rule-set and all the new gizmos in cockpit will define which driver has the edge over their competition. Keeping this in mind, George Russell seems to check off all the boxes, especially given his consistently stellar performances last year.
Tip for the Constructors’: Off track, the development race will turn out to be more of Sprint than a Marathon, and it the team that has the most efficient upgrade spree will most likely triumph by the time 2026 comes to a close. My pick would be Mercedes.
Lena Ferle – F1 Reporter
The winner of the Australian Grand Prix will be none other than Lewis Hamilton. The SF-26 carries – as Hamilton himself says – part of his DNA, and he will get on much better with this car than he did last year. The aerodynamic advantage of the rear wing will give him the decisive edge.
Oscar Piastri will win the Drivers’ Championship this year. After finding his form again at the end of last year following a rather weaker second half of the season, he will launch another attack in 2026 – and succeed.
The Constructors’ Championship will be very close. Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari will fight for the title until the very last second, but I predict that Mercedes will emerge victorious.
Fleur Rogerson – F1 F2 and F3 reporter
I think George Russell is going to have a dominant victory in Melbourne, with the engine advantage Mercedes have it’s going to take a reliability issue to stop the more experienced Silver Arrow. With the pace advantage the team has, and the fact he’s had a far cleaner weekend than Antonelli, it seems a done deal that he’ll take the top step of the podium.
I think Mercedes will take the Constructors’ title. It’s been clear since testing that they’ve aced the new regulations. Already 0.8s ahead of the rest of the field in qualifying, it seems like an uphill battle for the others on the grid. But it won’t be easy. We’ve seen teams start the season with a significant edge and lose it through strategic errors or reliability problems that arise in the face of regulation overhauls.
I think Charles Leclerc will win the Driver’s Championship. Ferrari doesn’t seem too far back from Mercedes leading the pack, and the Monegasque has shown before that he’s capable of closing the performance gap if the car beneath him allows it.
My bold prediction for the season is that Arvid Lindblad won’t just outperform Liam Lawson, but he’ll make it onto the podium before his more experienced teammate.
Tiana Soans – F1, F2 and F3 reporter
After last years dissapointment, I’m tipping Oscar Piastri to break the curse and be Australia’s first F1 race-winner at home. A bold prediction of the race is that will see at least 5-7 DNFs in Albert Park. The unpredictability and uncertainty from a few teams means that we’ve already got two confirmed DNFs with Aston. However, the carnage and chaos of Melbourne in the past few years suggests that number will be a bit higher in 2026.
George Russell has shown a lot of promise in testing and even the opening sessions of this weekend. I think it’s hard to go past him for the big title this season.
Whilst the new regs make the field a tad bit more unpredictable, Mercedes have been the strongest during testing and I think it’s once again hard to deny them for the title.
A bold prediciton for the reason is that Isack Hadjar will officially break the second Red Bull seat curse. For years, we have seen partners of Max Verstappen struggle to settle into that team, However, I think that Isack will beat the curse and maybe even beat Verstappen.
Oliver Bell – Motorsport Reporter
The safe bet is to suggest that George Russell will run away with it come lights out in Melbourne. The Mercedes looks to be in a class of its own in Australia, so getting a safe start could well be enough to see Russell to the chequered flag. At the other end, Max Verstappen could be set for an entertaining run to the podium from the back.
The Briton has been increasingly laser-focused on working towards his first Drivers’ Championship, including seeking the advice of Novak Djokovic as he goes for glory. Last season delivered some of the better performances of his career, and his eighth season in the sport could be the one to crown him champion.
There was almost a sense of inevitability around Mercedes ahead of 2026, a feeling of: “Are they really going to top a regulation change again?” So far, that looks to be the case. Pair that with a developing Kimi Antonelli and a determined Russell, and it really seems Mercedes will be tough opposition in our first year of this new era.
Aston Martin were touted by many as a dark horse for 2026 before their hopes so publicly unravelled. However, there could be no outfit better prepared to deal with trouble. The feeling in the Aston camp will not be a cheery one right now, but they could well be celebrating Alonso’s first win in 13 years in 2026 – perhaps in Madrid?
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