Former Formula 1 race engineer Rob Smedley has told Motorsport Week that Red Bull may prove to be a strong threat to Mercedes ahead of the start of the new season.
The Milton Keynes-based squad has consistently downplayed its chances of success in 2026, amid its nascent in-house powertrain project with American giants Ford.
And after showing some impressive short and longer-term pace in the Barcelona ‘shakedown week’, the team continued to appear a relative match for the Silver Arrows in Bahrain.
Mercedes are the stand-out favourites due to its current apparent power advantage, which has been the centre of much contention during the winter.
Pre-season testing produced its usual PR games from teams that one of its rivals has the best car, with many questioning if Red Bull is, as it has previously done in F1, sandbagging.
And Smedley, speaking exclusively to Motorsport Week, indicated that he feels the RB22 could pose a significant challenge to Mercedes.
“From the Bahrain test, there was – we saw a little bit of Barcelona then and then more so in the Bahrain test – a clear group emerging at the front,” the former Ferrari and Williams engineer said.
“Definitely Mercedes look very strong to start the season. Red Bull look very strong – they’re up there with them, and probably have the edge on race pace.
“Ferrari have done a great job, it’s really nice to see some of the innovations on that car. I think Ferrari will be there or thereabouts.”
McLaren ‘a little bit off’ and midfield challengers could pose threat to front four – Smedley
McLaren has been frank about an apparent lack of long-run pace, a real factor in its success throughout 2025, which it says leaves it shy of Mercedes and Ferrari.
And Smedley stated that the Woking-based outfit is indeed shy of possessing the top package so far, and some midfield teams could work their way into the fight near the front.
“McLaren, from the testing, were probably just a little bit off the back of that top three but not far away,” he said.
“They’re still in the mix and then it’s good to see the midfield as well, the midfield was a little bit shaken-up and possibly – let’s see in Australia – edging towards that top four as well.
However, Smedley warned that, given the new ruleset is still causing fresh problems and eventual solutions up and down the grid, next week’s curtain-raiser in Melbourne will not set the tone for season as a whole.
“But I think what you what you have to take into account is this ruleset is so immature, that the development is all-important,” he explained.
“It’s good to start the season with a good car, but [in] Formula 1, what the pecking order is in Australia, won’t be the case, more than likely, won’t be there, won’t be the case by the time we get to Abu Dhabi, just because the development curve will be so strong.”
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