The third edition of the event held on the glitzy Las Vegas Strip Circuit may decide the 2025 FIA Formula 1 World Drivers’ Champion: Lando or Oscar? Read who are the favourites and what are the odds for the 2025 race.
This is the question on everyone’s mind since the season started. Max Verstappen had a couple of great races recently in Austin, finishing first, and then in Mexico and Brazil, finishing third. But he is still behind in points, and the top two places remain a battle among McLaren teammates.
Because it is one of the final rounds of the season, the Las Vegas Grand Prix could play a crucial role in the championship. It’s a street night race, 6.2km long with 17 corners and the race lasts 50 laps, making it unique in strategy. Tyres are a major issue, as well as the number of pit stops, dirty air, and driving under the blasting lights of the Vegas strip.
The championship race before Las Vegas
Heading into this race, the title race is tightening but one name stands out. Lando Norris. With 390 points, 24 more than Oscar Piastri, the championship title is within arm’s reach for the Brit. However, it hasn’t always been smooth sailing for the McLaren driver.
Up until the Italian Grand Prix in Monza in September, Piastri was in the lead and a clear favourite and potential champion of the season.
Things took a sharp turn when Oscar was asked by his team to give Lando the position back because he had a slow stop, which he did. It sparked controversy in the team and among other drivers mocking Lando for taking the lead.
Piastri was never the same after this. In the next race in Azerbaijan, Piastri asked for the same favour from Norris, but was met with a firm decline and the Aussie’s race ended in the crash barriers.
This race defined the mood in the garage, and the tension grew from there. Since then, Piastri dropped from the title race, finishing among points but not on the podium. Lando, on the other hand, flourished, finishing first in Mexico and Brazil which launched him to the top of the table.
By the time of the Singapore race, McLaren won the constructors’ championship. It was a moment to celebrate, wasn’t it? Well, no. Oscar cut off all comms with his team once the race ended, including the infamous conversation with Zak Brown.
Lando and the team ignored any problems within the team and continued on with their strategy to grab the title. Piastri was unfairly left out, and to this day he hasn’t been mentally able to regain focus.
Because of all the drama in McLaren, Formula 1 expert picks and predictions switched from Oscar to Lando, with a few still believing that Verstappen could cause a stir. Fans are sure that Norris has the victory in the bag, and Oscar is out of the race for the top, at least for this season.
Still, let’s not forget that Piastri is only one victory away from grabbing the top position, and with three races left, anything is possible.
Who are the favourites in Las Vegas?
Fans are always going to root for their team, even though the chances of winning are not even in the cards. Sportsbooks are more realistic about the possible favourites.
The upcoming race is gearing up to be the one to remember since we have a unique situation where one driver might not win, but has enough points to claim the championship, or we could see a winner without a real chance to clinch the title.
The uncertainty of the championship has kept the fans on the edge since September, especially the ones who are looking to bet on Formula 1, as the outcome of the whole season might be decided in the next few days.
Last year in Las Vegas, Mercedes celebrated one two, with Carlos Sainz third in his last year with Ferrari. This year, everything is different. Lewis is driving a Ferrari, Sainz doesn’t stand a chance of ending up at the podium in Williams, and Mr. Saturday will likely be in the top five. Verstappen, who ended up in fifth place last year, this time around is given the biggest chance of winning. Here’s how fans see the upcoming battle in Sin City:
- Max Verstappen: +175
- Lando Norris: +200
- George Russell: +450
- Oscar Piastri: +650
Max is 49 points behind Norris, and it would take a miracle for him to win the championship. However, Max is no quitter, and we can be sure that he will fight till the end.
Winning in Las Vegas would bring him another 25 points which could move him up one place, in front of Piastri. Odds are also showing Verstappen as the favourite, but Norris is close behind, while Oscar is again lagging with predictions of him not finishing on the podium one more time.
So, what to make of this? The data suggests these two men are the driving forces in Vegas: Verstappen because of his proven winning record, and Norris because of his current championship lead plus strong recent form.
What Are the Championship Odds?
Now turning to the broader question: who is going to win the 2025 Drivers’ Championship? The odds here tell an even clearer story. Sportsbooks list Norris as the strong favourite for the title, with Piastri second and Verstappen third.
Let’s zoom out so we can have a clear picture. Lando Norris is the clear favourite, having dominated every single race over the past few months, building great momentum for himself and his team. His confidence level is also unmatched by other drivers, which is backed by McLaren clearly having the best car on the circuit this year, even ahead of the Red Bull Racing team.
Oscar Piastri is the close second favourite, but his chances keep diminishing. It’s obvious that he was severely impacted by the way his team is treating him as a second driver even though he was in the lead for most of the season.
Norris is McLaren’s golden boy that joined the team in 2019, way before Piastri in 2023, so naturally team principal Andrea Stella saw him as the absolute favourite for the title. If anyone can do it, it’s Norris.
However, Piastri started winning podiums, and the mood in the team shifted with Oscar demanding approval to race against Norris regardless of the team’s plans. This didn’t sit well with Brown and Stella, and Piastri was quickly put in his place as the unofficial second driver.
For the Las Vegas race, fans still don’t see him as being in the top three due to his psychological state of mind that is visible on the track.
Max Verstappen is the fans’ favourite, and he is the most likely to end up winning in Las Vegas. We are aware that Max could theoretically win the championship, but the odds are against him this season.
When everything is put together, Norris has the best chance of claiming the title in Vegas, Piastri can still challenge but his momentum is almost non-existent, and Verstappen will have an almost impossible task in front of him if he decides to take a shot at the championship.
Simply put, Verstappen will probably win in Vegas, Norris will likely grab the championship title, and Piastri will be watching this from a garage.
