Ferrari boss Fred Vasseur has said the possibility of a Brawn GP-style season of unpredictable dominance is a possibility in next year’s Formula 1 campaign.
2026 sees the introduction of a new set of radical technical regulations, which gives F1 an air of extreme uncertainty, as teams finalise their machines for the year.
With further electrification via a new 50-50 V6 hybrid and aerodynamic changes at the forefront, there is a sense of acceptance that the sport is set for a potential shake-up.
In 2009, an overhaul of the rules saw the nascent Brawn GP outfit, which had taken over the entry of the defunct works Honda team, dominate from the start, eventually winning both titles.
And Vasseur believes that something much like this scenario is not beyond the realms of reality.
“Nobody can predict,” the Frenchman told The Race. “I think nobody predicted in 2009 that you will have Brawn four tenths faster than everybody. They were coming from nowhere.
“You don’t know [the form book] also, because it’s the first time that we have had such a big change of tyres, fuel, engine, chassis.
“The sporting regulations are different with the energy deployment and so on, and all of them are crucial.”
F1’s new hybrid engines, which will likely require energy conservation on every single lap, mean that there is added responsibility for the drivers.
Vasseur has acknowledged that this gives F1 a new and unique dynamic in which some teams’ engines may perform well or badly, depending on a myriad of different factors.
“If you have a look today, when you speak about the engine, 90% of the performance is about just pure power,” he said.
“Next year, I think much more will be about driveability, turbo lag and so on. It means that perhaps the guy who will have the most powerful engine will have also the best for driveability and the best for turbo lag and so on, but perhaps not.
“Perhaps it’s the kind of season where you could have one engine performing [best] in Monza, and some other engine performing in Monaco or Budapest.
“It’s back to the turbo and [normally] aspirated engine era. This, I think, for F1 is exciting.”
There is no silver bullet to determine the best car in F1 2026 – Vasseur
Vasseur believes that there will be more onus on the engine’s performance compared to how F1 currently is, and says there could be a “loophole” in some design areas, which, again, could see similarities to 2009, with the infamous double diffuser.
“When we are speaking about the engine, it’s much more about reliability, and trying to do a good usage of the engine, good operation and so on,” he explained.
“But you don’t make the difference with the engine anymore. Next year, it’s another story.
“If someone is doing a better job on the tyres, the impact on the performance, even if it’s half a second, you won’t compensate just with the power of the engine [currently].
“So there will be some similarities with what we are doing today, except that you will put the engine into the equation.
“You could have also some loophole on the chassis side, as we had the double diffuser or whatever – which could open up some opportunities.”
Vasseur is aware that next year’s Ferrari will be required to be a flawless challenger in many ways, having observed the sheer dominance of McLaren this year.
The MCL39 has been the class of the field, and, by comparison, the Maranello outfit’s SF-25 has failed to impress, carrying a string of design flaws that compromise its performance.
This gives Vasseur the mentality that being reliant on a “silver bullet” to secure status as the best car for 2026 is impossible, and will be focusing on all areas to ensure the car can be at the front.
“We have to keep the same approach,” he said. “McLaren are doing a fantastic job this season, but in terms of potential they are two to two-and-a-half tenths ahead.
“But it’s more that we have 10 items on the car at two hundredths of a second that we have to improve. It’s not that they have a magic bullet that has three tenths.
“So we need to keep this mindset. It’s not that we have to change someone who will bring us something magic, it is that we need to improve in every single area. I think we have this mentality today.”
Vasseur concluded: “I think that if at one stage I’m convinced that we are there, it’s the beginning of the end.”
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