Oscar Piastri has gone from a breakout Formula 1 rookie in 2024 to a commanding title favorite in 2025.
After finishing fourth in last year’s standings, the McLaren driver has turned heads and odds boards alike, charging to the top with five Grand Prix wins and a remarkable run of eight straight podiums.
Piastri’s lead over Lando Norris stands at 22 points in the F1 standings after Montreal, where McLaren’s intra-team battle took a messy turn. With Norris crashing out and Piastri salvaging a strong finish, the dynamic between the two teammates just got more complicated. And with 13 races still to go, that battle could decide everything.
Sportsbooks currently have Piastri at -225 odds to take the title, while Norris trails at +275. Verstappen has pulled himself back into the mix at +460 after cashing in on McLaren’s Canada slip. Further down the board, George Russell and Charles Leclerc are sleeper picks, but it would take serious chaos at the top to see either driver make a real run.
This breakdown looks at the top names chasing Piastri and explores how the futures market sees the rest of the championship playing out.
Piastri’s dominance on the odds board
Oscar Piastri leads the Drivers’ Championship and sits firmly on top of the futures board. At -225 to win it all at most sites, he’s opened up real distance between himself and the rest of the field, becoming the go-to pick for bettors week in, week out.
His on-track consistency has been the story of the season. Before Canada, Piastri had rattled off eight consecutive podiums and secured five wins, including dominant drives in Spain, Miami, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. He stayed clean under pressure, avoided major errors, and capitalized when rivals faltered.
From a betting market perspective, he’s now the shortest-priced driver in both outright futures and individual race odds. In recent weeks, his race-day lines have opened as low as +125, which tells you how much confidence there is in both his form and in McLaren’s package.
Realistic chasers
Lando Norris
Lando Norris remains Piastri’s closest challenger, both on the track and with the sportsbooks. He’s trading around +275 in title futures and sits 22 points behind his teammate.
Wins in Monaco and Australia, along with a run of strong podiums, kept him in striking range for most of the season. But after he crashed out in Canada and lost ground in the standings, the pressure is on.
Max Verstappen
Max Verstappen sits next at +460 and is very much still in play. He picked up 18 points with his second-place finish in Montreal, cutting into the gap and reminding everyone he’s not going away. The Red Bull car may not be as dominant as it was in recent seasons, but Verstappen continues to find results.
He’s 43 points behind, which leaves little room for error, but his track record speaks for itself. If McLaren stumbles again and Red Bull unlocks more pace, Verstappen could make a run.
For now, only Norris and Verstappen are priced and positioned to stay in the conversation.
Long-shot threats
George Russell made headlines with his win in Canada, scoring the full 25 points and giving Mercedes a needed boost. That result moved his title odds to +2,500, a sharp jump from where they had been just a few weeks prior. He’s still far back in the standings, but another strong stretch could keep him on the radar.
Charles Leclerc sits at +5,000 and continues to hover outside the top tier. He grabbed a podium finish in Spain and delivered strong qualifying runs, but Ferrari’s inconsistency on Sundays has limited his impact. Without a breakthrough in race pace, his path to the top remains unlikely.
Lewis Hamilton is priced at +7,000. He scored points in nine of the first ten races, including a fourth-place finish in Imola, but has yet to threaten for a win. He’s shown moments of form but trails behind his teammate Leclerc and the front pack.
For any of these drivers to contend, it would take multiple setbacks from both McLaren and Red Bull, plus near-perfect execution the rest of the way.
Tracks, form & forecasted Shifts
The next race is the Austrian Grand Prix at Red Bull Ring, a high-speed layout with long straights and heavy braking zones. McLaren has shown strong pace on similar tracks this year, which gives both Piastri and Norris a good chance to extend their advantage.
Piastri opens the week with race odds around +165, Norris is close behind at +200, and Verstappen is priced near +350 after gaining 18 points in Canada. Oddsmakers continue to back McLaren as the team to beat on most circuits.
Weather forecasts show a chance of rain during qualifying in Austria, and that could shake up the grid. Red Bull and Mercedes are also expected to bring minor aero updates to improve corner exit speed, which could narrow the gap in sector two.
McLaren has been strong across all race formats so far. Unless upgrades from rivals deliver immediate results, Piastri and Norris should remain out front heading into back-to-back rounds at Silverstone and Spa.
Final thoughts: It’s a two-McLaren-man race for the championship
Oscar Piastri has put daylight between himself and the competition, with only Lando Norris being a realistic challenger based on form, points, and futures pricing. He trails by 22 but has the same machinery and the pace to respond if McLaren gives him clean weekends. Still, the clock is ticking, and each race that slips by without a swing in points makes the job harder.
Max Verstappen still holds value due to his pedigree and Red Bull’s potential, but the 43-point gap and lack of consistent wins in 2025 leave him on the edge of contention. Others like Russell, Leclerc, and Hamilton would need multiple front-runner DNFs to rejoin the fight.
Each race weekend brings new odds and possible shifts in momentum. If you’re planning on betting, keep close track of the futures market and watch for any slips in the McLaren garage. The title could come down to one move, one pit call, or one late-race mistake.
