Mercedes suspects that the true hierarchy among the teams in the 2025 Formula 1 season will be established once the upcoming three rounds have been completed.
The German marque has begun the campaign in positive shape with a W16 car that appears to have banished the limitations that plagued its capricious predecessor.
George Russell has registered consecutive third-place finishes in Australia and China, while rookie team-mate Andrea Kimi Antonelli has scored points in both rounds.
The initial indications suggest that Mercedes has a more consistent baseline than either Ferrari or Red Bull to build upon as it endeavours to slash its gap to McLaren.
“We’ve shown that we have a car that works well over a range of circuits,” Mercedes Trackside Engineering Director Andrew Shovlin said in a video.
“What we’ve also seen, though, is that McLaren are probably the team to beat.
“Max [Verstappen, Red Bull] is pretty quick. Ferrari certainly don’t look like they’re far behind and they’ve had a bit of bad luck in the last few races.
“So it’s a pretty tight fight at the front. We’re working hard to bring developments to the car, because, as I said, we need to close the gap to McLaren in particular.”
Mercedes mindful on 2025 pecking order
However, Mercedes is mindful that the opening two rounds being held at venues renowned as outliers on the F1 calendar could have distorted the competitive picture.
Indeed, Shovlin is waiting on the variance in circuit characteristics that will greet the teams in the triple-header in Japan, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia to draw conclusions.
“Suzuka is a fantastic circuit: very flowing and very fast. Many drivers have it as their favourite on the calendar,” he acknowledged.
“First time for Kimi, though, and that’s quite a tall order for such a young driver to be going there on their third race, but he’s excited to drive that.
“Then, onto Bahrain, we know Bahrain because we tested there. It has its own challenges, but hopefully we will at least be in the fight for podiums.
“Then there is Saudi Arabia, a street track which is quite smooth, with a relatively new tarmac and that throws up its own challenges. So three very different circuits.
“By the time we’ve done five we’ll have some idea of the real order. But as I said, it’s exciting to start a season with a car that works well and the drivers enjoy driving.”
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