Red Bull’s decision to drop Liam Lawson two races into the 2025 Formula 1 season has given Yuki Tsunoda the opportunity he has been craving. But while the call is a response to a competitive problem, the move will also solve the crossroads it was at with Tsunoda.
When Red Bull communicated that Sergio Perez’s wretched season last time around had culminated in him being dropped, Lawson and Tsunoda were soon named as the sole candidates to replace the Mexican.
The widespread consensus had been that Tsunoda – having outshone the more established Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull’s initial insurance choice, en route to piecing together his most convincing campaign in the sport – deserved the chance to step up.
However, Red Bull had other ideas as the persistent reservations that the top brass harboured over whether he is consistent enough to demand a seat at the top table and whether he has the mental resolve to cope with being Max Verstappen’s team-mate prompted Lawson to receive the nod.
Tsunoda’s anguish at being omitted once again was compounded when Red Bull boss Christian Horner expressed that he couldn’t remain the “bridesmaid” at the sister squad.
Horner, though, disclosed that Tsunoda remained an option in case things did not progress as desired with Lawson, a situation which was realised much sooner than Red Bull would have even envisaged this season.
How Lawson’s Red Bull spell unravelled
Lawson was guaranteed to be up against it regardless. The Kiwi’s experience in the series had been restricted to 11 Grands Prix across two interim spells with the satellite squad, making him the least prepared driver to be parachuted into the Red Bull top team.
The current Red Bull environment also can’t be considered one that is conducive to nurturing an undeveloped talent amid the unresolved troubles with its car that even a generational driver like Verstappen has struggled to mask on numerous occasions.
Red Bull’s subtle changes to the RB21 have eased the recalcitrant tendencies that plagued its predecessor, but not enough to widen the car’s operating range to aid the individual situated in the opposing garage.
Lawson exhibited this as he became the next in line to vindicate those who label the second seat at Red Bull a poisoned chalice.
The New Zealander’s spell in the Red Bull pressure cooker was the shortest to date as two weekends were enough to provoke the team to swing the revolving door wide open.
Lawson’s maiden weekend with Red Bull in Australia was disastrous enough to suggest that the writing could have been on the wall, while China then imposed a conclusive blow.
The evidence against him was damning; Lawson recorded three successive Q1 exits across two rounds, crashed out in the Australian Grand Prix and then laboured to 12th place, even once three cars had been disqualified, with an uninspired run in China.
Lawson never signalled that he retained the package underneath him at Red Bull that would have galvanised a seat-salvaging comeback in Shanghai, with the aggressive exuberance in wheel-to-wheel combat that had been among the attributes that had earned him the promotion not forthcoming.
In the circumstance where Lawson had replicated his predecessors and posted the occasional result that provided an indication that he could turn it around, Red Bull could have been persuaded to give him more time.
However, his scoreless return in the opening two rounds made an immediate change an inevitable discussion, with Red Bull residing a substantial 42 points down on McLaren despite Verstappen sitting eight points behind championship leader Lando Norris.
Red Bull hasn’t given up hope that it can improve the RB21 to become a match to McLaren’s pace-setting MCL39. However, the team’s bid to regain the Constructors’ Championship will depend on guaranteeing that it minimises the points losses until then.
With Red Bull no longer in the luxurious position where Verstappen’s exploits alone are enough to be in title contention, Horner has admitted that it is imperative the team has both drivers contributing at each round.
Red Bull giving Lawson the chop this soon into the campaign is, without question, a ruthless move. But this is also a cutthroat business. Red Bull were in this precise position with Perez in 2024, where hanging onto the hope that he would rediscover his old level cost the team a Constructors’ title.
The Austrian squad don’t have the time to commit the same mistake twice, and the decision was made easier as the stand-alone realistic alternative to Lawson has been pumping in standout results this season.
Tsunoda rises to Red Bull rejection
Tsunoda had been outspoken on the Red Bull situation as Perez’s place became untenable last time around, even declaring that Lawson being nominated instead would be “weird”.
But he was composed when pressed on the topic during his inaugural public appearance since it was announced he would be remaining at Racing Bulls, stating that he could understand the choice Red Bull made.
Racing Bulls Team Principal Laurent Mekies had commended Tsunoda’s reaction to the news since returning from the winter break and his level-headed approach translated to the cockpit as he revelled in his revised leadership role next to rookie Isack Hadjar.
Tsunoda bagged sixth in the Sprint in China and would have added more points in both Grands Prix without two strategic blunders which wrecked back-to-back top 10 starts.
However, Tsunoda’s showings hadn’t gone unnoticed as his excellent opening to the campaign earned him Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko’s adulation, the Austrian highlighting that he is now more “mature”.
But although he has impressed, Tsunoda has been dealt an unideal hand in which to conduct his Red Bull bow, with no time to sample the RB21 prior to his debut weekend.
Lawson has demonstrated that a driver’s results with the satellite squad will hold no bearing on how he fares in the senior setup.
And while Tsunoda insisted his style was compatible with the Red Bull RB20 that he piloted in the post-season test in Abu Dhabi, there are no certainties that will remain the case once he drives the side’s new machine.
Tsunoda is better-equipped than Lawson
The complicated and deplorable situation that has ensued could have been avoided, though, had Red Bull put pride aside and chosen Tsunoda when Perez’s period with the team was resigned to the history books.
Lawson would have been able to continue his development without the added pressure that is associated with representing Red Bull. Instead, even with the demotion, the attention will be on him at Racing Bulls to see how he responds to this abrupt setback.
Regardless, his immediate loss has been his ex-team-mate’s gain as Lawson’s demise has compelled Red Bull to place trust in Tsunoda.
Tsunoda is at least more prepared than Lawson was to tackle the step up as his promotion has come with 89 F1 starts to his name, making him the driver with the third most appearances prior to a Red Bull debut.
That alone leaves Tsunoda better-equipped to assess the areas he is lacking with the RB21 as he has a greater appreciation of how the current ground effect cars handle.
The Honda-backed driver revealed that he surprised the Red Bull engineers with his concise and thorough technical feedback. Horner alluded to this when elaborating more on the rationale behind the swap as he highlighted how Tsunoda’s experience will be integral in assisting the RB21’s development.
The emphasis on the person alongside Verstappen being able to pinpoint the car’s inadequacies with expert precision has become more pronounced since Red Bull’s acknowledgement that the Dutchman’s supreme skills can conceal the hurdles that trip up much less-established team-mates.
Lawson’s inexperience in this regard would have been a hindrance to Red Bull’s aim to get on terms with McLaren, and he wasn’t compensating in the short term with results.
With Lawson struggling to the extent that he was, Red Bull had little to lose in replacing him now, even with the option it turned down.
Red Bull would have been approaching a dilemma with Tsunoda in the coming months no matter what based upon Horner’s admission that he can’t continue to command a presence in a spot which, in essence, is still intended to develop drivers that could end up graduating to the top team.
At least now Horner and his colleagues will receive definitive answers as to whether their collective preconceived doubts surrounding Tsunoda’s limitations are accurate, in which case releasing him when the campaign has concluded – a scenario that was appearing plausible had he been left at Racing Bulls through 2025 – would be understandable.
Lawson can salvage F1 career
Meanwhile, Red Bull acting decisively has also guarded against irreparable mental damage being done to Lawson, a driver who Horner implied boasted more potential than Tsunoda, according to the team’s data bank.
However, that promise wasn’t realised at Red Bull. Instead, the energy drink brand’s distinctive model has enabled him to continue competing in the series with Racing Bulls in a car that is more benign than the capricious Red Bull RB21 that he has driven.
There is no reason to suspect that Lawson won’t return to the Faenza-based squad and establish that he is much more capable than he has been made to look so far this season.
The precedent has been set with Pierre Gasly and Alex Albon, two drivers who, like Lawson, were promoted prematurely due to Red Bull’s mismanagement with drivers and the expectation proved too much, too soon.
The bruised reputations that both departed with have since been rebuilt, though, showing Lawson’s career isn’t irredeemable.
However, Tsunoda is now the one with the chance that he has been coveting, and it will begin with his home Grand Prix at Suzuka. Time will tell whether he can prove that the solution to Red Bull’s long-standing second driver conundrum has been there all along.
READ MORE – Red Bull explains cutthroat decision to swap Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson
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