Aston Martin Team Principal Mike Krack doesn’t expect “big deviations” in the pecking order in the 2024 Formula 1 season due to a period of stability in the regulations.
The second year with the latest ground effect cars witnessed Aston Martin and McLaren make sizeable inroads to become consistent contenders for podium results.
However, the crushing dominance of Red Bull prompted the grid to converge upon the downwash sidepod solution that the reigning champions had optimised with its RB19.
Although most teams will adopt the process of evolution for 2024, Ferrari and Mercedes have been pursuing revamped car concepts to rectify the development mistakes both committed to across the previous winter.
But with no changes to the technical rules from last season, Krack admits that it would come as a “surprise” to see a substantial reshuffle in the overall standings this year.
“When you have stable rules, the way we have it now, teams will rather go evolutionary,” he told Autosport.
“And, if you have such a standout car, as we have with Red Bull, I think a lot of people will try to go in that direction.
“On the other hand, we have heard from Ferrari, from Mercedes, that they will make very big architectural changes. So, we are curious to see what that is going to bring.
“But I think, all in all, if you look at it, usually what happens if the technical regs stay [the same] the field is moving closer together year on year.”
Those comments echo the view of Williams boss James Vowles, who conceded the British outfit will struggle to make “big steps” until the next regulation overhaul in 2026.
Although Red Bull’s advantage remained intact until the end of the last campaign, the entire pack in qualifying at the final round in Abu Dhabi was covered by 0.628 seconds.
Krack believes that teams will become fixated on unlocking marginal gains on the operations side as a more compact field will make incremental gains even more pivotal.
“[The stability] is then also putting more emphasis on operations again because, if the cars are close together, it’s really the small details that make the difference on the grid position,” Krack explained.
“[The tight gaps] will only get smaller, I think, over the years to come. So, to come back to the original question: I will be surprised if there are big deviations to where we are now.”
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