The second and final pre-season Formula 1 test is upon us and it's the last chance for teams to hone their packages before the opening grand prix of the season, which takes place at Melbourne's Albert Park in a little over two weeks' time.
Ferrari were quick, as were Renault, Mercedes held back and Alfa Romeo impressed during the opening four-day test, but will that be the same picture when the final four days are wrapped up on Friday evening in Barcelona? We'll soon find out, but for now, we've got five pressing questions we'd like answers to…
1. Who will emerge on top?
Last week’s opening pre-season test, naturally, led to few concrete conclusions, but the general assumption – based on trackside viewing, comments, and other elements – was that Ferrari held the slight edge over Mercedes. This is not the biggest surprise, and nor should it be taken as evidence that the titles are definitely returning to Maranello. For the past two years Ferrari has started strongly – and Mercedes a tad behind – but it has been the Silver Arrows that have undertaken better development programmes as the year has worn on. It has never been Mercedes’ tactic to show its hand so early. The second test, typically, provides more clues. Teams will divert more focus to performance runs – both qualifying and race simulations – as they get to learn more about their 2019 packages.
2. Can Red Bull-Honda turn it up?
There were positive noises coming out of the Red Bull, Toro Rosso and Honda camps during the first test. Toro Rosso stole more of the headlines but there was an air of optimism coming from Red Bull, with Helmut Marko insisting it can win races in 2019, and while race drivers Max Verstappen and Pierre Gasly weren’t applying any time frames, there was also a spring in their respective steps. Honda has made progress – of that there is no doubt – but further evidence will be supplied when Red Bull turns up the wick in the RB15 in both short- and long-runs this week. It was relatively anonymous in the first week so observers will be taking a keen interest in its pace across the next four days.
3. Who will peek out of the midfield group?
Working on the assumption that Renault has cleared this group – and it is a large assumption – then that leaves Haas, McLaren, Racing Point, Alfa Romeo and Toro Rosso. Of those five it is the ‘worst’ two from last year that impressed the most in the first test. Alfa Romeo and Toro Rosso showed competitive pace and both camps were happy, with Kimi Raikkonen nonchalantly pointing to a lack of performance runs and real set-up work as well. Haas had more than one niggle – and it was niggles that cost them points in 2018 – the McLaren looked nervous on track, while Racing Point was behind its expected opponents due to starting the year with a ‘vanilla’ car. This quintet appear close, and it is a battle that should ebb and flow as the season wears on.
4. Can Williams dig itself out of a hole?
There’s no beating about the bush: Williams is in a deep mess. It finished last in 2018, with a deeply flawed car, and has started 2019 firmly on the back foot. Its delay was not a case of pushing the boundaries for performance gains; the car was simply not ready. And when it did appear it was in basic shape, lacking certain components, and restricting Robert Kubica and George Russell to predominantly carrying out aero runs. In reality Williams is an entire test behind most of its opponents and desperately needs an encouraging week in order to not only save face but to get a little confidence pre-Melbourne. If not, the rumours surrounding the future of Paddy Lowe – whose shareholding means he is allegedly too expensive to sack – will grow.
5. How fast will these cars get?
Track conditions last week were almost perfect for this time of year but there was still an element of surprise at the speed of this year’s cars. After early times in the 1:18s, Nico Hulkenberg ultimately set the best time with a 1:17.3. The best time at last year’s second test (as the first test was hampered by inclement weather) was a 1:17.1. Of course, there are fuel variables, tyre variables and the simple nature of whether a driver actually hooked up a lap. It was estimated last May that 2019 front wing changes would cost 1.5 seconds/lap in performance, but such is the rate of development that such a loss may have already been recouped in that time. Pirelli pointed to tarmac evolution as a key factor (following the pre-2018 resurfacing), but one question is whether the circuit record could be beaten. That was a 1:16.173 set by Lewis Hamilton. Keep an eye on the leaderboard…
