Lewis Hamilton took a step closer to the 2018 Formula 1 title with victory as rival Sebastian Vettel had another frustrating weekend. Motorsport Week presents its conclusions from the Japanese Grand Prix.
It’s déjà vu all over again
There is a bizarre similarity between the 2017 and 2018 Formula 1 seasons. And yet, just as equally, the route to a near-identical situation has been different. But almost the same.
In 2017 Sebastian Vettel’s slim title hopes were dealt a blow in Japan, and in 2018 it was much the same story, his and Ferrari’s plight accentuated by a Lewis Hamilton victory. After 17 races in 2017 it was Hamilton 331, Vettel 265. After 17 races this year it is Hamilton 331, Vettel 264. Hamilton will be the World Champion of 2018 to move one clear of Vettel in the all-time ranking, and it is fully deserved. The coronation may take place in Austin (and it seems likely given Hamilton’s record at the venue), but failing that then another title-clincher in Mexico is possible. It is impossible to declare that Suzuka was the moment that Vettel lost the title – there are an array of events that can lay claim to such a statement and that in itself is a dismal assessment – but it was another weekend that reflected the ability and composure of both driver and team in a high-pressure, high-stakes situation.
Hamilton, Mercedes imperious
Mercedes arrived in Japan buoyed by its 1-2 result in Russia, even if the team orders issue left a slightly sour aftertaste. It topped FP1, FP2, FP3, Q1, Q2, Q3 and controlled the race for 1-2 finish. It undertook its plan and executed it in near-perfect fashion. The W09 was simply the quickest car around the legendary figure-of-eight circuit and the occupant of the #44 car was in a rich vein of confidence, resulting in the perfect combination of man and machine. “We have made a big step forward since Spa,” said team boss Toto Wolff, with Mercedes having identified weaknesses through the Bus Stop chicane and La Source hairpin at that event. “Monza, Singapore and now here are three very different tracks, and we took it as an ambition to perform on all three to prove to ourselves that we are capable to deliver a car on every sort of track — the high-speed Monza race track; twisty, hot Singapore city circuit; and then Suzuka, which has a little bit of everything. I think now we have the car in a really good position. We understand how the aero works with the tyres, the drivers really feel well and have a lot of confidence in the car, and al that together I think made us outperform our competitors.” There is no such thing as a perfect all-round driver, but surely 2018-spec Hamilton must be close (or perhaps the closest) Formula 1 has ever come to such a person in the sport’s entire history. Much of the focus may be on the Ferrari/Vettel setbacks, but in turn this title has been decided as much by the brilliance of Hamilton/Mercedes.
Where did it go wrong for Ferrari?
In theory, it never went right. Mercedes’ form around Suzuka was such that Ferrari was set for a Sochi repeat, and mistakes crept in. Qualifying was not a total disaster but the decision to take on Intermediates was baffling, though that would not have been such a talking point had Vettel not subsequently erred on his one dry Q3 lap. Vettel defended the decision but it left him eighth on the grid. Initially it appeared as if the powers of recovery would be in evidence after making four spots in one lap – but trying to gain a fifth proved fatal to his hopes of a podium finish. The attempt was opportunistic, the execution sloppy, and the result inevitable. If there is one driver who you give a wide berth, it is Max Verstappen, and the door was only half open, even if the closing speed was greater than usual on approach. It was admirable to go hard or go home, yet equally it would be been just as easy to wait and profit from Verstappen’s five-second penalty. In the grand context of the title fight it meant Vettel dropped to 67 points behind rather than a probable 60 – and that is unlikely to be a monumental change. More alarming is the regression from Ferrari for a second successive season, and that Vettel had made a litany of errors. Last year he had a strong campaign, aside from two major mistakes, but this season he has only occasionally had a completely clean Grand Prix weekend, stymied by a team that has sunk under pressure.
The Power of Dreams
There was a joke circling through much of 2015 that Honda’s slogan for McLaren should be changed to ‘The Dreams of Power’, but in 2018 Honda finally had a promising showing at their home track. Toro Rosso merchandise was prominent in the fan zones throughout the weekend as the locals got behind Honda’s partner and the team used the Spec 3 engine to good effect in qualifying, finishing sixth and seventh, its best combined grid result since returning to Formula 1. The race was far less satisfying as Pierre Gasly dropped to 11th and Brendon Hartley to 13th; Gasly was hampered by a fuel pump issue on Friday that denied him crucial track time in order to sufficiently calibrate the Spec 3 engine, with long run tyre data also not gathered. A request put into the FIA for parc ferme changes to be made was accepted, and then rejected, leaving Gasly on the back foot regarding settings. The tyre strategy was also a hindrance as he was undercut by the Force Indias while the lack of Friday data contributed to Toro Rosso opting for Softs, and suffering blisters that made the last 10 laps particularly hard work. Hartley, meanwhile, wrecked his tyres after encountering a dollop of wheelspin at the start, at which he lost several positions. In spite of the overall result the fact that both engines lasted the duration and showed relatively decent pace was encouraging going forward for Honda – and therefore Toro Rosso and 2019 partner Red Bull.
Renault clinging on to fourth
Renault’s gradual rise through the pecking order since it acquired the flailing and financially stricken Lotus outfit in late 2015 has hit its first big dip. Renault has scored only a smattering of points since the summer break and Nico Hulkenberg conceded that, while focus has switched to 2019, it has also been out-developed by its opponents. For a squad that has long-term title ambitions that is a tad alarming, albeit countered by its superior early-season pace giving it a theoretically shallower improvement path. Hulkenberg’s late FP3 crash was symbolic of Renault’s late season regression and although the team deserves plaudits for its rapid repair job Hulkenberg was unable to escape Q1, before retiring due to an ill-feeling with the rear of the R.S.18. Carlos Sainz Jr. at least salvaged a point off the tyre-limited Gasly with three laps remaining but on this form it is difficult to see Renault holding on to its eight-point buffer over Haas.
McLaren and Williams in the abyss
Throughout the weekend a buoyant Mika Hakkinen demonstrated his McLaren MP4-13 as part of Suzuka’s 30 years celebration. It also marked 20 years since Hakkinen clinched his first world title, which in turn came off the back of two seasons of double championships for Williams. Fast forward to 2018 and these once great teams are scrapping for, well, scraps at the rear of the pack. McLaren was the slowest team in qualifying and that a double Q1 exit barely causes a ripple in the paddock is a damning testament of its predicament. McLaren was also an anomaly in terms of tyre choices, going light on Supersoft, but downplayed suggestions that a lack of running on the red-banded compound in practice proved influential. It was also keen to reject rumours that its selection was so different because it missed the deadline, instead insisting that it had taken the approach as the MCL33 was better on harder rubber earlier in the campaign, with teams mandated to select compounds 14 weeks in advance for flyaway events. McLaren at least jumped Williams in race trim, despite Fernando Alonso receiving a time penalty for gunning it across the grass and gravel when edged wide by Lance Stroll. Both teams are now focused on starting afresh in 2019 and putting the current lessons into place; McLaren will have an all-new line-up while F2-champion-in-waiting George Russell is understood to be the favourite to replace Force India-bound Lance Stroll. Sergey Sirotkin wants to remain, and Williams feels similarly, though much may depend on the efficiency and quantity of payments.
