“I was the future once.”
So said David Cameron upon his last appearance in Prime Minister’s Questions in the UK in mid-2016, shortly after resigning his leadership in the wake of the Brexit vote. That comment came 11 years after telling then-Prime Minister Tony Blair that “he was the future once”.
Around that time in 2016 Stoffel Vandoorne was the future. The Next Big Thing. At Monza he was announced as Jenson Button’s replacement for 2017, handed his opportunity in the big time. Just two years later, exactly to the date, The Next Big Thing is being replaced by 2018’s Next Big Thing. It is a cyclical pattern inevitable in any sport as the next megastar is touted and hyped. There is simply not enough room for everyone to be a winner.
And yet, how did it come to this? And so soon?
It is easy forget that Vandoorne’s reputation was so strong, and for good reason. In successive years he went from Formula Renault 3.5’s runner-up to GP2’s runner-up and then finally a runaway GP2 champion. He was brutally quick in 2015, demolished the opposition, and did so in a controlled manner while preserving the delicate tyres. It was hugely impressive.
Mercedes boss Toto Wolff stressed he would find Vandoorne a seat if McLaren was “crazy enough” not to hand him the seat that he was ultimately awarded.
Vandoorne’s full-time step-up coincided with the third, disastrous season in the McLaren-Honda relationship, when the Japanese manufacturer’s new power unit concept failed to deliver the desired results. Vandoorne made errors, and was regularly behind Fernando Alonso, but given the Spaniard’s undoubted talent and experience, allied to his status with the team, plus Vandoorne getting accustomed to an ever-changing and unpredictable package after years in spec single-seaters, it was little surprise that the Belgian played second fiddle.
A few encouraging performances provided a glimpse of the potential, but 2018 began in middling fashion and deteriorated rapidly, coinciding with the team’s own slide down the midfield pecking order after a bright-ish start. Vandoorne has not scored a point since Azerbaijan, a run that included a bizarre loss of downforce across Britain/Germany that had even Alonso defend his team-mate. It is clear that Alonso has had the measure of Vandoorne in 2018 and for that the Belgian has his fair share of culpability, but in a tight midfield the gaps can be exaggerated, while the off-track chopping and changing of personnel, and the uncertainty, has surely not helped. Vandoorne, it must be noted, has been closer to Alonso than some of the Spaniard's past team-mates.
Throughout this difficult phase Vandoorne has maintained his dignity, stayed composed, and backed the team. As late as Thursday he was still eager to continue into 2019. “I’d like it to work out with McLaren because obviously we’re going through a tough time and the reward would be so much nicer if we can get into a winning position together again,” he said. “When you go through struggles and manage to get back on top it’s much more rewarding, but we’ll see.” McLaren felt otherwise, though team boss Zak Brown conceded that “it’s clear we haven’t provided Stoffel with the tools to show his true talent,” with his decision to oust Vandoorne meaning that the last of the major Ron Dennis-era players is now gone.
Second chances occasionally occur in Formula 1 and Vandoorne may yet be given his opportunity to prove his talent elsewhere. It would be a shame if he was not afforded that chance. If he wants to talk to other drivers about second chances, he can quickly consult two of his current competitors on life after Woking. Given McLaren’s current predicament, it may be rosier than he thinks.
McLaren rushed to prise Sergio Perez away from Ferrari’s young driver academy for 2013 but was sufficiently unimpressed and replaced him for 2014. Perez has since rebuilt his career at Force India and emerged as a consistent points scorer and occasional podium finisher.
The man who replaced Perez was Kevin Magnussen, then the reigning Formula Renault 3.5 champion, but he too lasted just one year, as McLaren opted to re-recruit Alonso to partner Button. Magnussen’s Formula 1 career was circling the drain after he left McLaren but a late call-up by Renault eventually took him to Haas, where stability and a little bit of TLC has allowed him to flourish, holding eighth in the standings, and effectively a title challenger in Class B.
For Vandoorne it was a case of wrong place, wrong time – so what about Norris?
Fast-tracking drivers to Formula 1 is all the rage nowadays and Norris will make the step having graduated from Formula 3 and Formula 2 in successive years.
McLaren picked up Norris early in 2017 and he delivered the Formula 3 title in impressive circumstances, and his speed and application during F1 tests was encouraging.
It was clear through 2018 that he was emerging as the favoured protégé at McLaren as it swatted aside a request from Red Bull (Toro Rosso), such was its determination to retain his services. Norris is undoubtedly a driver with enormous potential and fits the bill for McLaren to have a driver long-term as it plots its recovery. Guiding a young British driver from Formula 3 to Formula 2 and then ultimately winning in Formula 1 would make a nice story – and it sounds awfully familiar…
The primary talking point is whether now is the right time.
2019 will be a baptism of fire. McLaren is in as choppy waters as it has ever been, struggling on-track and still undertaking changes off it, with new Technical Director James Key unlikely to get his feet under a Woking desk until next year. It will undoubtedly be a learning year – though this should work to his benefit long-term if McLaren avoids being trigger-happy (a la Perez, Magnussen and Vandoorne) and gives Norris much-needed time and backing. Going up against Carlos Sainz Jr., rather than Alonso, should ease the pressure, and being in a position of battling for points, rather than higher honours, will aid the learning trajectory, even if such a place in the pecking order remains embarrassing for McLaren. Having Brown so firmly in his corner will also be of great help.
Norris will need that learning year for his season in Formula 2 has been a little underwhelming, even accounting for his lofty position in the standings. His emphatic showing in Bahrain’s season-opener signalled his intentions, but he has not won since, while George Russell has triumphed five times and put in more rounded performances. Some of Norris’ race management has been sketchy, while the Carlin team that has run him for several years – and has a prestigious history of unearthing talent – is not wholly convinced that he is ready.
Nonetheless, it will be Norris who will step up to Formula 1 aged just 19 next year, a driver who was born after McLaren's most recent Constructors' title victory.
Norris undoubtedly has the capability and potential to emerge as a contender in Formula 1. But just two years ago so did Vandoorne.
