Next week marks the start of the 2017 F1 season, with all 10 teams in action at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya in Spain. Motorsport Week’s panel of Formula 1 gurus, Phillip Horton, Luke Smith, Jack Leslie and Ryan Wood, have all stuck their necks on the line to discuss the biggest talking points ahead of pre-season testing.
Who do you expect to fight for the world title?
PH: Without wishing to sound negative, I fear this season could be a 2015-type romp to the crown for Lewis Hamilton, with a double-digit number of wins. The Briton came agonisingly close to the 2016 title, despite repeated setbacks and a few self-inflicted errors, and is in the prime of his career. Valtteri Bottas will be rapid, but it’s a tall order to expect him to be on Hamilton’s level for 20 races, having only just joined the team. Hopefully Red Bull will provide a stern challenge – but it’ll be a lofty task to dethrone Mercedes at this stage.
LS: I’m expecting the drivers’ title to be contested between Lewis Hamilton and Daniel Ricciardo. Hamilton is the overwhelming favourite for the new campaign, but if Red Bull can continue its recent upward trajectory then there is every chance Ricciardo can get in the mix. He’ll have the edge over Max Verstappen, with qualifying being a key plus-point for the Australian, and should be there to pick up race wins that Hamilton misses out on. Ultimately, I think Hamilton will just have too much for Ricciardo, but it won’t be a runaway win.
JL: I do believe Mercedes will continue to be the team to beat in 2017, despite all of the new regulations, and Hamilton will be the lead title contender. But, I just have a feeling Red Bull could feature much more than in previous years and with a quick and consistent racer in Ricciardo, I think (and hope) he could have a shot too.
RW: Although we’ve major regulation changes coming this year, and traditionally such changes bring a new pecking order, you can’t rule out Mercedes — or more likely Hamilton — and Red Bull drivers Ricciardo and Verstappen. Whether new Mercedes recruit Bottas can play a part, I’m yet to be convinced. The two teams were a class apart last year and I expect that to continue into 2017. Mercedes was still some way ahead on the power unit side and that will count for a lot this year. Red Bull meanwhile has also adapted to change well and Renault has some strong developments coming on the engine side.
Who has the most to prove this season?
PH: Nico Hülkenberg arrived in Formula 1 as the driver who had dominated each junior category in which he competed, and yet this year he could break the record for most races started without a podium. Hülkenberg has been unlucky on occasion, but the feeling of unfulfilled potential still lingers. Now 30, and having been usurped by the next young generation, Hülkenberg has an opportunity to revitalise his career with manufacturer backing. This year may be a challenging season, but the foundations laid should lead to results in 2018 – it’s up to Hülkenberg to prove to Renault that their faith in him is rewarded.
LS: Both McLaren and Ferrari have big seasons ahead. Two houses both alike in dignity, neither has managed to rediscover the kind of form that once yielded world title after world title. They’ve not even got close. Ferrari and McLaren both need to prove this year that the changes they are making are for the better. Losing out to a privateer such as Williams or Force India in the final constructors’ championship would be a big hit for both teams and surely undermine the efforts being made to invoke change at Maranello and Woking.
JL: There are quite a few drivers on the 2017 grid who have plenty to prove, but the pressure is still very much on Daniil Kvyat’s shoulders. He went from a podium in China to incidents in Russia and a demotion from Red Bull to Toro Rosso. From there, it was clear his confidence had been shattered, and it was duly reflected in the results. Some progress later in the season was made but many were still surprised when he was retained by Toro Rosso for 2017. If he wants to cement his long-term future in F1, he definitely needs to step up.
RW: It has to be Bottas. The Finn has secured one hell of a promotion, moving from Williams to Mercedes. However, Bottas has yet to convince me he’s championship material — though I hope he proves me wrong. Joining a championship-winning team and partnering arguably the best driver on the grid will not only pile the pressure onto the shoulders of the 27-year-old, but the focus is going to be very much on whether he can match Hamilton’s pace. Though I expect the team and fans will cut him some slack for the first half of the season.
Who do you view as the ‘dark horse’ this season?
PH: It sounds slightly churlish to label GP2’s most dominant driver as the dark horse, but Stoffel Vandoorne has the capability to be a Formula 1 megastar. Vandoorne, who turns 25 on race day in Australia, has been nurtured by McLaren for several years, and his shot at the big time is long overdue. Vandoorne has supreme car control, precise racecraft and an unflappable mentality. The esteemed Fernando Alonso is still performing at the peak of his powers, as proved by some of his 2016 showings, but he won’t have an easy ride against Vandoorne.
LS: I’m backing Carlos Sainz Jr. to be my dark horse for the season ahead. Sainz has proven time and time again that there really wasn’t much difference between him and Verstappen, and was hamstrung through the backend of last year by the year-old Ferrari power unit. Now with current-year Renault power and, most crucially, the magic key – James Key – on the aero side of things, Toro Rosso could be in a good place for the coming year. Expect Sainz to impress and stake a claim for a top seat for 2018; it’s no less than he deserves.
JL: Joining a new team just a couple of months ahead of the new season isn’t an ideal situation. Bottas has a lot to learn in a short space of time and it’ll probably take him a few races to get up to speed, but the Finn is a rapid driver – if not, slightly underrated. He was regarded as a bit of a ‘vanilla’ choice for Mercedes, with their limited options for Nico Rosberg’s replacement, but I reckon Bottas will surprise quite a few people and have a strong season.
RW: I think Esteban Ocon is going to thrive at Force India if they can deliver a decent car. Ocon drove well for Manor last year with flashes of brilliance now and again, which is hard to do in a car that was often at the very back. Renault, Mercedes and now Force India have all seen something special in him, therefore if the Silverstone-based squad’s car can once again fight for points on a regular basis, I can see Ocon delivering a chunk of their total tally.
Who do you fear could struggle this season?
PH: Sauber has spent years battling financial constraints and while last summer’s arrival of Longbow Finance alleviated concerns, the impact is unlikely to be profound, due to long-lead times in the sport. A year-old Ferrari power unit will also compromise the team; a step forwards is feasible, but substantial gains may have to wait. Haas, too, could face a challenge. Pre-2016 it had a long period of preparation, for 2017 it has not had such luxuries. Updates last year took a while to be understood, and the expected high rate of in-season development in 2017 will accentuate that weakness.
LS: Ferrari has the most to prove, yet I also think it will be riding the struggle bus this year. The loss of James Allison came at a time when a good aerodynamic head was needed at Maranello given the shift in regulations for the coming year. Sebastian Vettel became increasingly frustrated towards the end of last year, and I don’t see things getting much better this season. Ferrari lacks ‘ringers’ in its technical team – that could hurt a lot in 2017
JL: Jolyon Palmer looked a bit out of his depth early on in the 2016 season as he made the step up. Sure, it was his rookie year, he made a few mistakes and that’s understandable. But, for the most part he struggled in an already woeful Renault and put in some costly errors when a possible good result was on the cards. With a talented team-mate like Nico Hülkenberg alongside him in 2017, and trickier cars to handle, he could be in for a tough time once again.
RW: As much as I’d hate to see it, we’ve already seen what I believe to be the start of their next decline. Williams hasn’t enjoyed much success in recent years bar a race win for Pastor Maldonado back in 2012 and I suspect that’ll continue into 2017. They’ve lost their ‘star’ driver to Mercedes, re-hired a ‘retired’ driver and a rookie. Although Felipe Massa and Lance Stroll aren’t the worst driver pairing, they’re far from the best. Even if Williams can deliver a car capable of fighting at the front, can you really see this pair making the most of every opportunity, like a Hamilton/Alonso/Ricciardo or Vettel would?
What will be the biggest talking point off-track?
PH: Liberty Media’s arrival as Formula 1’s new owners is seismic for the sport’s political landscape, bringing Bernie Ecclestone’s 40-year reign to a close. This year will be about laying the foundations for the future, and thus there will be political manoeuvrings up and down the paddock. Liberty will want to exert control, teams will want to flex their muscles, circuits may eye better deals, while the FIA will also be keen to asset its authority in this post-Ecclestone world. It could make House of Cards look like a teatime gameshow.
LS: The driver market for 2018 will be a massive talking point. 2017’s ‘silly season’ was a bit of a let-down last year, so we should see massive changes for 2018. Both Vettel and Fernando Alonso are out of contract, and Bottas’ Mercedes seat will undoubtedly be banded about regardless of his displays. Who goes where – and indeed who isn’t about next year – will be a big off-track talking point.
JL: Liberty Media’s takeover has already been one of the biggest F1 stories of the last few years, and it’s only just begun its reign over the sport. A change of this size will always spawn other enormous stories. When Liberty starts looking at modifications it wants to make and announces changes, these are likely to spark massive debates. It’s what everyone’s talking about right now and that’s not going to change anytime soon.
RW: I think we could see a few, particularly with the loss of Bernie and the takeover by Liberty. But I’m predicting a driver falling out as the big talking point this year. Most recently we’ve had the Hamilton/Rosberg ‘unfriending’, now it’s time for the Ricciardo/Verstappen friendship divorce. Whilst the pair have gelled well so far, the fact Red Bull wasn’t in a position to win a championship last year might have helped. As I’m predicting a decent Mercedes v Red Bull championship battle, I suspect the pressure of a title fight will put a massive strain on their relationship and lead to some choice words off-track as well as on-track. Red Bull hasn’t exactly been the best at managing team-mates in the past…Multi 21, Seb.
What would you most like to see this season?
PH: 78 Grands Prix have passed since McLaren last won a race. Half of the current drivers weren’t even on the grid. A whole new generation of fans don’t perceive McLaren as a winning team – after all, they’ve only had one podium in that time. McLaren is an iconic team, and it would be superb for the outfit to end its barren spell, proving that it was justified to take the difficult road with Honda. Such goals may be unambitiously lofty for 2017, but an Alonso/Vandoorne victory would be rapturously received.
LS: Following Liberty’s takeover, sea changes on the political side of the sport in the coming years are inevitable. The triumvirate of Carey, Bratches and Brawn will lead the way, but where the teams lie will be of interest. The F1 Strategy Group will hopefully be scrapped in favour of something more democratic – although the demise of FOTA isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of an all-for-one body – or the teams will get on board with Liberty’s vision for the future. Either way, conflicts need to be avoided this year as the revolution takes hold.
JL: One thing we all want to see in Formula 1 is a competitive grid, where you go into a race weekend with no clue who could win it. Last year, we knew it was going to be a Mercedes driver on the top step of the podium come Sunday. And if it wasn’t, then it’d be a Red Bull. The last few years have lacked a wide range of race winners and that’s something I’d love to see – more drivers picking up victories.
RW: What all fans wish for…a fight for the title between more than two drivers from the same team. We’ve had the Mercedes domination. Before that we had the Red Bull era. Now it’s time for two or more evenly matched teams to fight it out for ultimate glory. I’d be more than happy to see just two teams (four drivers) battling it out, then at least we get some variety. Ultimately, I can only see that being Mercedes and Red Bull as their rivals aren’t quite there yet.
What do you think will be the biggest positive and negative from this season?
PH: This year’s rules were formed in quick reaction to complaints from some quarters in early 2015, before the natural process of that regulatory cycle was allowed to emerge. Consequently, the desire for quick, spectacular cars has prevailed, and they should, in theory, be aesthetically pleasing. Whether the difference is noticed on TV is questionable, after all, does a MotoGP bike look dull on screen, considering it’s 30s/lap slower than F1? Hardly. The other primary fear is that the quicker lap times and increased downforce comes at a price – the quality of racing. We’ll have to wait and see.
LS: The biggest positive this year will be the young blood that is coming through. Stoffel Vandoorne, Esteban Ocon and Lance Stroll are all names that could come to define the next era of great F1 drivers; to have them on the grid together starting out is fantastic. The biggest negative will be the lack of seismic change in the pecking order. Mercedes will still be the team to beat. Anyone hoping for a Brawn fairytale is going to be left disappointed…
JL: The new rules for 2017 look set to make the cars even more visually striking. We’ve already had hints from various F1 people that the cars look super aggressive and that’s good to hear. Hopefully there won’t be any ‘thumb nose’ tips in sight come pre-season testing. But on the negative side of things, the slimmed-down grid due to Manor’s demise is a sad story. F1 needs these smaller teams and a big grid, they’re important to the racing and spectacle. Also, the new aero rules have sparked concern, with many expecting overtaking to be tougher and therefore less frequent in 2017.
RW: Faster cars which are harder to drive has to be a major positive. Who doesn’t want to see the drivers truly tested, driving machines which reach mind-boggling cornering speeds and look absolutely insane!? However, that positive might just bring with it the negative of poor racing. Faster cars are good, but if they can’t overtake, there’s not much point. The tyres could also be a factor in that as drivers are unlikely to need to stop more than once during a race.
This article first appeared in this week's issue of Motorsport Monday, which is free to view, here.