Against the pre-season odds a number of factors are pointing towards Fernando Alonso winning a third title this year.
In a season that is so competitive and challenging the best drivers come to the fore, and that is what we are seeing from Alonso at the moment. His notorious consistency is also favouring him in a season where nobody else is finding any.
Furthermore the team mate battles at all of Ferrari’s main rivals, and the team’s tendency to come on stronger in the second half of the season, all play into the Spaniard’s hands.
For a number of years Alonso has been regarded as the best driver in the sport. To be leading the championship in a car that is off the pace is just cementing that opinion.
Heikki Kovalainen told Finnish paper Turun Sanomat: “Alonso’s lead…yes, he will take the championship this year.”
He added: “Whatever the special circumstances or the weather conditions, there is always a common variable, and that is Alonso being somewhere at the front.”
At the start of the season Ferrari were around 1.5 seconds off the pace. Therefore for Alonso to come out of the first two races with a fifth place and a victory was deeply impressive.
The Spaniard has always sniffed out the slightest opportunity for a race victory, and that’s what he saw in the wet in Sepang.
A surprise victory in Malaysia catapulted Alonso to the top of the table (© Ferrari).
At every race so far in 2012 he has out-driven his car and got the best result possible from the weekend. He hasn’t been making silly errors or throwing away golden opportunities.
In 2011 his efforts would have been to no avail. After six rounds of the season in 2011 Vettel had already scored a massive 143 points. That means that this time last year Alonso would already have been 67 points behind the championship leader, with his current points total of 76.
However because so many drivers have been in contention to win races in 2012, and nobody has put a decent run together, 76 points is enough for Alonso to be leading this championship.
In a battle where four or five teams are involved it’s scoring big points at every race that will win the title, not necessarily outright wins. This sort of consistency has been Fernando’s trademark throughout his career. Never has this attribute been rewarded more than now.
It doesn’t matter what the pecking order has been amongst the front runners at each race so far, Alonso has found a way of getting himself into the mix every time.
Chances are Alonso won’t have a race winning car again in Montreal. It was Red Bull on top in the race in Monte-Carlo but Montreal should suit Lotus and Mercedes. The circuit features long straights connected by slow corners which should suit both their cars.
Odd results like Maldonado winning in Spain are playing into the hands of Alonso (© Ferrari).
Therefore if the Canadian form follows that theory and Alonso can finish in the 3rd to 5th place region chances are he could still increase his championship lead over the Red Bull drivers and Lewis Hamilton.
Heading to Valencia and Silverstone, Alonso could be battling with completely different teams at the front. This continuing fluctuation will continue to favour him.
The tyres have been a huge challenge for all the drivers this year. Putting in decent lap times, whilst nursing the tyres at the same time, has put a much bigger emphasis on driver skill than normal.
If driver and team get it completely wrong in regards to the tyres they can find themselves finishing a long way behind their potential. We have certainly seen this on a number of occasions. McLaren’s performance in Bahrain stands out as the most obvious example.
Alonso has clearly found a way to work with these tyres and make them last. He has approached races very intelligently picking the right moments to push, and when to nurse the tyres.
Being on the money in terms of the tyres and strategy can be the difference between finishing tenth or being on the podium. Fernando and Ferrari are getting it right more than most at the moment and reaping the rewards.
Furthermore the fact that the teams are so closely bunched together means if a driver can find a couple of extra tenths from nowhere, they can catapult themselves up the order. This is exactly what we are seeing from the Spaniard.
It’s not the quickest car, Ferrari know that, but it’s improving with every passing race (© Ferrari).
Jaime Alguersuari wrote in his BBC column: “When everything is so close, the drivers make the difference.
“That’s why you see Fernando Alonso leading the championship. His car was 1.5 seconds a lap slower than the best in Australia, a second slower in Malaysia and China. It has never been on pole position, and he is leading the championship after six races!
“He hasn’t got the best car, but he has shown that at the moment he is the best driver out there.”
The Ferrari is currently improving leaps and bounds. Overall the F2012 is currently around half a second off the pace rather than in excess of a second.
Alonso doesn’t need the quickest car to challenge for championships. As long he is within range of the top cars he can utilise his capabilities to put himself in the fight.
If Ferrari can just find another two or three tenths over their main rivals, that will certainly put Alonso in an even stronger position.
This radical Ferrari still has plenty of unfound potential so they have every chance of being able to achieve that. They will be bringing a major upgrade to Montreal, and you can be sure there will be more to come.
Historically Ferrari has always come on stronger in the second half of the season.
Expect a stronger Ferrari in the second half of the season (© Ferrari).
This was the story in 2010. Alonso won four races in the second half of that season as opposed to just one race in the first half of the year.
In 2006 Ferrari came back very strongly in the second half of the year, after the first half was completely dominated by Renault. As it turned out they were unlucky not to win at least one title. These are just two examples.
Yet again Alonso also has the huge advantage of being the clear number one driver at Ferrari. As we head towards the business end of this championship this could become critical.
None of Alonso’s key rivals for the title have this advantage. At Red Bull Webber has rediscovered his form from 2010, and there is nothing to separate the two Red Bull drivers at present.
So just as they did in 2010 they are taking points off each other and it’s likely to continue all year. With the pair locked in this tight battle the risk of a repeat of what happened in Turkey back in 2010 is always a possibility.
If Vettel or Webber had been the team’s top points scorer at each race so far (as was normally the case in 2011 with Vettel), they would be above Alonso in the championship standings.
In fact, they would be 24 points clear of Fernando, rather than three behind. That just shows the difference it can make, when two drivers in a top team take it in turns to be the lead driver, against a team who has a clear leader.
Incidents like the above in Turkey (2010) can really alter the order.
Former F1 driver Mika Salo told the Turun Sanomat: “The Red Bull guys (Vettel and Webber) are pretty close to Alonso in the championship but in the long run they are fighting each other for points.
He added: “Alonso has a team-mate that will not take his points in the same way.”
At McLaren we are going to have another battle between Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button. It may have been a tough last couple of races for Button, but there will be races where Jenson will hit the sweet spot and will emerge ahead of Lewis (as he did in Melbourne). There will be races where it’s Lewis that hits the sweet spot.
Although Kimi Raikkonen is number one on points at Lotus it’s very nip and tuck between him and Grosjean pace wise. We will certainly see Romain taking points away from Kimi when he stops having first lap incidents.
Nico Rosberg also appears to be the clear number one at Mercedes, but Schumacher has shown very strong pace but has been completely luckless. When his luck changes there is no doubt there will be races where Schumacher is on top and taking points away from Nico.
Massa is very unlikely to take any points away from Alonso at all. He will only help him at races he is also competitive, like he was at Monaco.
Massa’s role as number two could be pivotal in Alonso’ success (© Ferrari).
As Luca Di Montezemolo says: “I’m counting on him (Massa) to take valuable points off our competitors.”
On the other hand at every other contending team the risk of team-mates taking points from each other is very high.
Very tight margins decide open championships like this and this could potentially be the clincher.
It shouldn’t be forgotten that Fernando’s experience of tight championships battles will put him in good stead too. He knows better than anyone how to play the long game. He will happily settle for a podium rather then risk everything for the win, if it keeps him ahead in the championship.
Ultimately the tightness of the grid, added with the difficulty of the tyres, has made this one of the most challenging seasons for F1 for years. Drivers are able to make a decisive difference to their destiny, rather than just being at the mercy of the car underneath them.
This has enabled Alonso to make full use of his immense talent and rise to the top of the tree even if his car isn’t quickest. The likelihood is that his season is only going to continue to go from strength to strength.
To win a championship of 2012’s nature you need to be: fast, consistent, intelligent, maximise every opportunity and not make mistakes.
Alonso is the only driver demonstrating all of those attributes at the moment. You just sense it’s going to be his year. Not only that, but the year where Fernando establishes himself as one of the legends of F1.