With the new season having begun and the first race just days away, we (Ryan Wood, Editor and Daniel Chalmers, Features Editor) decided to sit down and discuss all the teams on the grid and their chances for 2012.
We’ve also ranked the teams on a 1-10 scale over eight categories: Drivers, Engine, Aerodynamics, Mechanical Grip, Development Pace, Resources, Strategy and Reliability, to give an overview of how we believe the teams will fair this year.
RED BULL
Daniel Chalmers: We start with Red Bull who are looking to win their 3rd straight title. With stability on their side and Adrian Newey in arguably his best ever form (with the team being built around him effectively) they are looking as formidable as ever aren’t they?
Ryan Wood: Absolutely. Red Bull are definitely the ones to beat this season, as they were in 2011. As you’ve mentioned they’ve retained stability with Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber, whilst the management and design side has also remained stable. You can’t say that for many of the other teams up and down the grid.
Daniel: Red Bull may suffer from the blown diffuser ban but they are not going to suddenly end up with a bad car overnight. In 2009 (the first season of the current aero regs) Red Bull were extremely quick without a double diffuser or a blown diffuser. Even if their rivals have closed on them Red Bull also showed last year that they were strong in other areas such as strategy, reliability and not making mistakes. All these sorts of things are critical as well as speed to win championships. Only perfection will beat them in 2012. Do you see any weaknesses from Red Bull at all?
Ryan: We’ve seen during pre-season testing that Red Bull are no slouches, though it’s extremely difficult to read into the times, it’s clear they’re either heading the field or very close to the front at the very worst. So pace isn’t going to be an issue in the early stages. Red Bull is probably, in my personal opinion, the most complete team on the grid. Despite their relatively recent success in the sport, they have two great drivers, one of, if not the best designers, strong management and powerful financial backing from Dietrich Mateschitz. The only area I can see there being any problems is with development.
McLaren, their main rival in 2011, started the season a good second behind. If speculation that McLaren are just a few tenths behind at the first race proves to be true, then Red Bull will need to keep the development pace up as McLaren are renowned for stepping up their game after the first few races.
What would you say is the team’s biggest weakness and what do you think to Webber’s form? He’s got to step up his game if they’re to secure a third Constructors’ title.
Daniel: I think you have a point about development. We are now in the fourth year of the current aero regulations. How much more performance can Newey find from these regulations? Also we know Red Bull’s plan A is to get pole and run away with the race. That worked most of the time last year but if it doesn’t work (because one or two of their rivals have a car to match them) have they got a strong enough plan B that can consistently win races?. When they needed a plan B last year it seemed to work, but they didn’t need it that often, so let’s see what happens if they are pressurised regularly.
With regards to Webber I think he has the ability but he just can’t apply it as consistently as the great drivers including Alonso or Vettel can. That’s the issue. However the ban on blown diffusers, and the changes to the Pirelli tyres will suit him and I think he will have a better season. And I suppose the last concern you have to have about Red Bull is what happens when Newey leaves? Building a team around one man is great whilst he is there but if he leaves then the whole thing can collapse. Red Bull must make sure they start getting prepared for that eventuality when it does happen.
Ryan: Newey has a few years left in him yet, but as you say, planning for such an eventuality is key to ensuring you don’t drop off when it does happen, just look at Williams.
MCLAREN
Ryan: The McLaren camp seem to very happy with how their winter season has progressed, evidently far better than recent ones. But can they do enough to challenge Red Bull? It’s all well and good having a competitive car, but as we saw last season, they made mistakes. Button’s wheel at Silverstone, Hamilton’s numerous incidents and some unusual strategic decisions.
Daniel: I really sense this could be McLaren’s year. For the last few years they have had bad winter testing and have always had to recover. Their development rate is the strongest in F1 and the problem is they keep on having to make the most of that strength. In testing this year they have been strong and consistent. Imagine if they can start the season strongly but still apply that traditionally relentless rate of development. It really could be quite a season for them, but they have to hit the ground running from race one. They have a strong driver line-up but I do wonder if that could end up costing them, in the driver’s championship at least.
Ryan: I share that feeling. They’ve come so close and have finished runners up in the Constructor’s for the past two seasons and third before that. However, they really need to start strong like you said from race one.
Most people would believe having two strong drivers would be beneficial, and it is, but it can really damage both their chances at winning the Drivers’ title. They’ll be taking points off each other all season, if they and the car perform well. It didn’t happen so much in 2011 because Hamilton often performed poorly in the races Button excelled in and vice versa. But this year, I expect Hamilton to rebound. They’ll mount a very strong challenge on the Constructors’.
Daniel: You have to imagine Vettel and Alonso are going to be the team leaders at Red Bull and Ferrari respectively. Therefore Hamilton and Button taking points off each other is going to help them. I agree that Hamilton will rebound. He seems in a much better place than year. When he is on top form he is the most talented driver on the grid in my opinion but he will always be liable to mistakes. Also on the tracks where degradation is high I think he is less effective.
Mclaren are good at winning races but in terms of the championship something has always gone wrong in recent times whether it’s been reliability or getting involved in scandals. As you say they have to get rid of the errors but if they can start with one of the fastest cars then they have a much better chance.
Ryan: They do, and they’ll have identified those weaknesses and done everything they can to iron them out. The addition of Sam Michael (someone I highly regard, despite how his career went with Williams) has been brought in to make the race weekends run smoother in his Sporting Director role and who knows, it could just be what was lacking in 2011.
Daniel: I agree with that. I like Sam Michael too. I think the issue at Williams is that he was in the wrong job and the structure wasn’t great so he was doing more jobs than he should have been. At McLaren he is back to using his strengths and I think the team will be in much better strength trackside. He can help the team ensure they make the most of their car at race weekends. Overall I think McLaren have depth to their team, it’s not about just one or two people. They will always be up there but I now wonder if they are about to enter one of their periods of success like the late 80s, late 90s for example. It’s started to come together after a bit of title drought, (apart from Lewis’s title in 2008).
FERRARI
Daniel: Now we move onto Ferrari who have made the headlines for all the wrong reasons in testing. They have responded to Red Bull dominance by going down a more radical route and so far the car has looked like a bit of a handful. Where do you see them at the moment?
Ryan: It hasn’t been a great few weeks for Ferrari has it, and I fear the next few weeks may be worse as their performance level is proven on-track. I spoke to a few people in the paddock at the final test and from what I was hearing, people truly believe Ferrari are fourth if not fifth quickest behind Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes and Lotus.
This isn’t good news when they’ve approached the design of the F2012 in such a radical fashion. It’s what was needed, but it doesn’t seem to have paid off… yet. Fernando Alonso seems confident that it has potential which just needs to be unlocked. I hope this is true and they find the key soon, because we need to see another team challenging the front if we’re to enjoy a classic season of racing.
They seem to have however calmed the doom and gloom recently, could it be misdirection at the start of the season? I doubt it, but the pressure is surely on them to improve after just a single race win last year.
Daniel: I think there is a lot of pressure on Ferrari as there always is. There is clearly a lot of potential in this car but with only 12 days of pre-season testing these days it’s very difficult to get a handle on a car with a clean sheet design. In the past when you had much more pre-season testing Ferrari may have been going to Melbourne in better shape. For me I am not too surprised in Ferrari’s dip in form in recent years. They have suffered since their dream team left back in 2006/2007. Guys like Ross Brawn and Jean Todt just can’t be replaced.
Ryan: Ferrari began this great push for nationalism since Brawn left, hiring many Italian engineers and designers, rather than choosing on talent alone. This has punished them a little and has since seen them make changes with Pat Fry and many others coming into the team. It always takes time for the effects of new employees to be felt, especially in such pivotal roles. They’re a strong team and they’re capable of turning things around, but I don’t think 2012 is their year.
Daniel: The rules don’t suit Ferrari these days. Ferrari were the team who used to really rely on testing using their own track and that was a big reason for their domination as was their special relationship with Bridgestone and the advantages of that even stretched into the period when they became the sole tyre supplier. And now I think the strongest people in F1 are now working for their rivals, think Willis, Newey, Brawn, Bell and people like that. A combination of these factors has seen Ferrari slip.
I do now wonder if this is the start of one of those long periods when Ferrari doesn’t win a title. Remember there was no driver’s title between 1979 and 2000. How they bounce back from their current predicament will be key as to whether they end up having a title drought in my eyes. But like you, I want them to be up there.
Ryan: If Ferrari can give Alonso a half decent car, he’ll be in the mix. He’s by far one of the most complete drivers on the grid. Unfortunately it looks as though they’ve failed to do so and that’s their fault. During that period of draught however they won the Constructors’ five times which brings me onto Felipe Massa. How long has he got left? He hasn’t been the same since his accident and the team need a stronger number two. He wasn’t a feature of the top four at all in 2011 which isn’t acceptable for a team of Ferrari’s calibre.
Daniel: With a difficult car it’s likely that it will maintain the gap between Alonso and Massa. It’s hard to imagine Massa keeping his seat. I think he would have already lost it had Kubica returned to fitness. You sense behind the scenes Felipe’s replacement is already being planned. To win the constructors championship you need two drivers scoring a high number of points. I also think Ferrari need to worry about keeping Alonso. If they have another bad year they could end up not having a top driver in their team at all.
MERCEDES
Ryan: Which brings us to Mercedes. They seem to have made strides during testing and look to be the third fastest team. They have two solid drivers in Michael Schumacher and Nico Rosberg. The former has proven his skills, but hasn’t wowed since he made his comeback in 2010, though he has closed the gap to Rosberg. Can we expect that gap to continue to shrink this year?
Daniel: I think it will be one of the closest battles of the year. Rosberg clearly has the one lap pace but Schumacher has shown that in the race he still has it, and some of his opening laps have been incredible. He also seems happier on this year’s Pirelli tyres. If he can just be more competitive over a single lap combined with that race pace Schumacher could have a great year. Both can win races but I think they need the Merc to be the quickest car on the grid to do it. They are moving forward with their new technical signings of Costa, Willis and Bell trying to build a dream team to take on Newey like Ferrari did in their glory years. Where do you see them in the pecking order this year?
Ryan: I think we’ll see them battling to be third fastest with Lotus and Ferrari if they can get their act together. Podiums, definitely, wins, I’m not so sure. It’ll take some reliability problems from Red Bull and McLaren if we’re to see Mercedes on the top step of the podium, that’s not to say that Schumacher and Rosberg aren’t capable of doing so, they just need a car that’s capable of it.
Daniel: I think there is clearly raw pace in the car but looking at the lap times it seems to be very hard on the soft tyres as we have seen in the past. But I agree we will see podiums at the very least, and thats the least Merc will expect after the investment they have put in. They have had to rebuild after having to cut back in the Honda to Brawn transition but I do see progress starting to be made.
Ryan: It’s going to take time. They’ve made big changes with the technical signings you’ve mentioned. This is only their third year as Mercedes and I think people expected much more because of Brawn GP’s success – but people forget how much was put into that car in terms of time and money. Two years development and millions from Honda before they bailed. Mercedes can’t justify the same expenditure in these uncertain times, but they’ll be a force to reckon with, no doubt.
Daniel: You are absolutely right. Brawn spent millions of Honda’s money on the BGP001 and then they started development of it well in advance of their rivals. I suppose you can compare Merc to a football team thats signed 3 or 4 world class players. It doesn’t bring instant results but over time it can. I hope the Merc board are patient. The only thing I do wonder is whether Brawn is as effective in a team prinicipal role as he was in the technical director role for all those years at Benetton and Ferrari.
LOTUS
Ryan: Next we have Lotus, formerly Renault. They’ve got a lot to prove, simply because expectations are now so high after signing Kimi Raikkonen, a former champion. They’ve topped the times during testing which has created a false sense that they’re going to do very, very well. Nothing is guaranteed, but that’s not to say they won’t do well, the R31 looks good, but can they really challenge for wins, even with the great Finn behind the wheel?
Daniel: The Lotus definitely has pace. It’s likely that they have been light on fuel at times during the test but they look in very good shape going into the season. In my opinion they are the third best team behind McLaren and Ferrari. Merc may be slightly ahead in quali trim but looking at the long runs in testing Lotus don’t have as much tyre wear and to be honest I don’t even think the gap between them and Red Bull/McLaren is actually that big.
Ryan: We’ll see in Australia, but I still believe Mercedes are ahead of Lotus, both on one lap and race pace.
Daniel: I think last year Lotus did transfer their good testing pace to the races initially. There were podiums in the first two races afterall. I think the team’s issue is staying power and whether they can stay with the top teams all season long. Even when they won the title as Renault back in 2005/2006 Alonso bemoaned their lack of development pace, one of the main reasons he ended up at McLaren I think. So there will be some highlights but I don’t see the team as title challengers. Which Kimi do you think we will see at Lotus. The McLaren one or the Ferrari one?
Ryan: Despite him winning his title with Ferrari, we all know his best years were with McLaren and he could have been a double champion had the team’s reliability not been so appalling. I hope, and think, we’ll see the true Kimi, the pure racer. He’s back and it seems he’s more motivated than ever. The break has done him a world of good and he’s back where he belongs. What do you think to his teammate Grosjean though? An all new line-up at Lotus, neither rookies, but both have been out of the sport for a while.
Daniel: Firstly I totally agree with you about Kimi. At his best he is incredible and the first signs are that Lotus have got themselves the McLaren Kimi. Grosjean will surprise in my view. Despite being thrown in before he was ready in 2009 at times he was only a few tenths off Fernando in the second segment of qualifying. Thats closer than Felipe has often been able to get to him. With a full pre-season under his belt and the GP2 title last year I think Romain could really star in 2012 and maybe take Kimi by surprise occasionally. The talent is definitely there.
Ryan: I agree. I always liked Grosjean, but the Renault was a bad car in 2009 and joining mid-season didn’t help. Like Kimi, two years away from the sport has done him good. He took the GP2 title with some quite amazing performances. Hopefully he’s honed his skills and he’ll come back stronger. Whether he can one-up Raikkonen, I couldn’t say, but it’d be a nice surprise.
FORCE INDIA
Daniel: Let’s move onto the midfield now which I think we can separate with a cigarette packet. Force India have been improving year on year and I love the look of their car this year even with a stepped nose. How do you see them faring this year?
Ryan: The VJM05 is probably the best looking stepped nose car without a shadow of a doubt, but that has very little to do with its speed. However, it’s shown great promise in testing. The mid-field has closed up significantly and just a tenth here or there will mean the difference between a few places on the grid. I think we’re in for a truly exciting mid-field battle of which I believe will be led by Force India. They have two great drivers both of whom I really rate. It’s a young line-up which could hurt their development rate later in the season. Do you think the loss of Adrian Sutil’s experience will hurt them?
Daniel: I personally think Sutil is a brilliant driver and his peak performances are very high. However it’s not as if they have replaced him with a pay driver. Hulkenberg is a very talented driver with huge prospects, and so is Di Resta. It’s a great line-up. The main issue is that when you have inexperience there can be a lack of consistency and mistakes that can cost you points finishes. Who do you see coming out on top in the battle between them? For me Di Resta edges it when I compared the debut seasons of both drivers.
Ryan: My money is on Di Resta too. It’s going to be close though. They both made ‘rookie’ mistakes in their debut seasons, they both impressed, but Di Resta has the knowledge within the team and hasn’t been out of the sport for a year. So he’s got to come out ahead in the early races, with Hulkenberg leveling it out later in the year.
Daniel: What impresses me about Force India is that even with key departures in recent times such as Mike Gascoyne and James Key to name a couple they have still improved considerably. Clearly there is strength in depth in that team. Andrew Green is doing a great job as technical director. After a few murky years in 2005-2007 this is now an exciting team with plenty of fireworks within. And who knows, maybe we will see that podium at India this year. Maybe the only problem is the issues Kingfisher are experiencing and whether that poses any threat to the team.
Ryan: Yes, I wanted to bring up the Kingfisher/Mallya problems. The financial problems he is experiencing could harm the team’s development pace if the funding dries up, but they should be OK for 2012 with the Sahara money.