It’s a strange quirk of sports analysis that success can have some unexpected results. If we take, for example, Lewis Hamilton – the red-hot favourite in the betting markets for the FIA Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship before the season got underway. The logical conclusion is that, having won the first race of the new season, Hamilton would cement his place as the favourite.
But it’s not always that simple. And after Bahrain and Hamilton taking maximum points, we had the surprising (on paper) outcome that his odds have increased in the F1 betting markets. While Hamilton was still the strong favourite – odds-on, in betting terminology – but his odds increased from 4/11 to 4/6 (source 888sport). If you want to look at it another way, the implied probability of Hamilton winning an eighth World Championship title dropped from almost 75% down to 60%.
Meanwhile Verstappen’s odds plummet
A more predictable consequence of Hamilton’s fall was that Max Verstappen’s odds were slashed after being so unfortunate to miss out on victory in Bahrain. The Red Bull man’s odds came tumbling down from 5/1 pre-Bahrain to 6/4 after the race. That’s a huge call by bookmakers. Again, if you are not a punter and want to look from the perspective of implied probability, his chances for the 2021 title changed from about 16% to 40%.
As you might expect, a similar change to the odds occurred with the Constructors’ Championship markets. Mercedes’ odds increased from 1/5 to 4/11, and Red Bull’s shortened from 10/3 to 2/1. It will be interesting to see how – or if – bookmakers react after the British Grand Prix (a long time Hamilton favourite) next week…?
Indeed, one of the intriguing parts of this is that, in past years, bookies were not usually very reactive after the first few grands prix of the season. In the past Hamilton has not won the traditional curtain opener since winning at Melbourne in 2015. In the past few seasons, including last year when Hamilton finished fourth in Austria which ran as the delayed opener of the 2020 season. Bookies normally ‘hold their nerve’ in these situations, having usually kept Hamilton’s odds untouched despite not winning. So, it was rather remarkable to see his odds increase despite claiming victory in the opening round.
An exciting title race awaits
Of course, Formula 1 fans will tell you why this is the case better than any betting expert. It was clear to see for anyone watching the action in Bahrain and the races since that both Verstappen and Red Bull have performed way better than expectations. Similarly, Mercedes and Hamilton underperformed despite getting the opening victory.
The good news is that bookmakers now believe that we will have a proper contest for the 2021 Drivers’ Championship, and perhaps the Constructors’, too. Sure, that could all change after the summer break if Hamilton pulls away and Verstappen cannot keep up his challenge. But for the moment, the race looks tight in betting terms. And that might mean a more exciting battle for the championship than we have seen in the last few years…
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