The success of Lotus-Renault’s gamble on Kimi Raikkonen will depend on whether they get the McLaren version or the Ferrari version.
At McLaren Raikkonen thrived, and was at times absolutely mesmerising, and easily the most exciting driver in F1. If it wasn’t for unreliability he could have won two titles with the team.
At Ferrari he was regularly underwhelming despite winning a title in his first year with the team. He lacked that spark that we were so used to in his McLaren days.
There is no doubt that this was a gamble the team had to take. This is an outfit that have desires on winning races, and challenging for championships.
On paper there wasn’t much chance of that happening with the other drivers available on the market. You have to bear in mind the formidable driver pairings in the top four teams, and Lotus-Renault need to compete with that.
There was absolutely no chance the team was going to be successful with two rookies, as is the current line-up. Robert Kubica had already made it clear there was a strong chance he won’t make the start of the season.
Furthermore the likes of Adrian Sutil and Heikki Kovalainen weren’t inspiring choices. Although Kovalainen has done well at Team Lotus, he didn’t demonstrate any title winning potential at McLaren – despite his one race win with the team.
In Raikkonen the team have a proven race and championship winner. When he is on top form it wouldn’t be unreasonable to suggest that he is amongst the fastest in F1, if not the fastest.
He is also one of the bravest drivers out there, as shown when he drove flat out through smoke at the top of Eau Rouge in 2002 (although these days that would probably have earned him a grid penalty).
Also, his fight back through the field in Fuji in 2007, when the spray as a result of heavy rain was immense, was spectacular to witness.
Raikkonen chases down Vettel in Fuji, 2007 (© LAT Photographic).
In terms of natural speed he is right up there alongside Lewis Hamilton. Let’s not forget that Raikkonen had only ever competed in around 20 professional races before making his debut for Sauber in Melbourne, 2001.
His record at the tracks where drivers can still make a difference have been strong. He has won the Belgium GP four times, as well as winning the Monaco and Japanese GP’s too.
There is no doubt his best days came at McLaren, and Lotus- Renault will have a great season if he recaptures that form. Because it’s a long time now since the Finn drove for the British team, many people have forgotten just how brilliant he could be.
He is a driver that much prefers oversteer to understeer. Between the nature of the McLaren cars and the Michelin tyres that is exactly what Kimi enjoyed.
In 2003 Raikkonen was only two points off winning the title, despite driving a car that was two years old for the whole season. If it wasn’t for an engine failure whilst leading at the nurburgring, the championship would have been his.
In 2004 McLaren produced a shocker of a car, but even so Kimi still managed to beat the dominant Schumacher at Spa when he got his hands on the B-spec version.
In 2005 his pace was electric all year when reliability allowed. However a series of mechanical failures allowed Fernando Alonso to claim the title. That season included his greatest race when he won from 17th on the grid at Suzuka.
Raikkonen on the podium at the 2003 Monaco GP (© LAT Photographic)
His last lap move around the outside of Giancarlo Fisichella, with their wheels inter-locking, was one of the most thrilling images of the last decade.
At Ferrari things were very different. Raikkonen was never at ease with the Bridgestone tyres, like he was on the Michelin tyres during his McLaren stint.
Furthermore his personality never really fitted into the family culture that exists in the Ferrari team, and that was very much to his detriment. Ferrari has a need for a driver to lead the team, and they didn’t have that with him so the relationship didn’t work.
In 2008 the development of the car went away from him, and understeer became a dominant feature which he hated.
Although he won a title with the team and had other highlights, he never reached anywhere near the same levels of performance he did whilst at McLaren.
So which Kimi are his new team likely to get?
The first key factor is the Pirelli tyres. His success will ultimately depend on whether the tyres will suit his driving style. As we have seen this year some drivers have thrived on the tyres (Vettel, Button) and others haven’t (Webber, Hamilton).
The other key factor regarding tyres is the fact that tyre conservation is now much more critical with Pirelli’s approach to F1.
The Finn has always been a driver that likes to push flat out from start to finish. In 2012 he won’t be able to do that in races otherwise his tyres will hit the so-call ‘cliff’ much too early. Can he manage the tyres effectively but still be quick?
Raikkonen celebrates his 2007 title win with Ferrari (© Ferrari)
He also hasn’t had the experience of racing with fuel tanks full to the brim (re-fuelling was still allowed back in 2009). That’s something else that he will have to get used to, and he potentially might not like.
Chances are Raikkonen will be the lead driver within the team, and will be the one the team looks to, to get big results. Therefore the focus will likely be on him.
This was always the case at McLaren alongside David Coulthard, where he excelled. At Ferrari that wasn’t always the case, particularly in 2008 onwards. His form suffered as a result.
What was interesting was the spell after Massa had his horrific injury in Hungary. At that point Raikkonen perked up and drove beyond the limit of the car and got some strong results, including another victory at Spa. When attention was back on him, his performance returned.
So clearly if the team gives plenty of focus to the 32-year-old, and ensure that the developments on the car lean towards his style, they have a better chance of extracting the best out of him.
The other thing the squad has to do is give Raikkonen a fast car. As we have seen in the past the Finn often loses his motivation, if he doesn’t have a car that can challenge for race wins.
However you can be sure that with the arrival of Kimi everyone at Enstone is going to be hugely motivated to give him a car, which can see him perform at his exciting best.
Overall if Lotus-Renault gives Kimi a fast car suited to his personal preferences, and he can adapt to the Pirelli tyres, then F1 could be really exciting next season. Under those conditions then there is no doubt that the iceman would be a title contender.
However if he gets a slow car with as much understeer as a supermarket trolley, and he ends up hating the Pirelli tyres then the gamble (a rather expensive one at that) will not have paid off.
It really could swing in either direction. As winter testing starts we’ll start to get a clearer picture of just how well Raikkonen could potentially fare in 2012.
There is no doubt that the McLaren version of Kimi Raikkonen is a driver that the likes of Vettel, Alonso, and Hamilton should all be very worried about.
It is also what Lotus-Renault desperately need, if they are to have any chance of being major contenders in 2012.
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