Alex Palou is the current IndyCar points leader, and has a good chance of clinching the championship this weekend in Milwaukee.
Coming into the weekend, the reigning champion is sitting on a sizeable 91-point advantage over Kyle Kirkwood and a 110-point advantage over Christian Lundgaard.
With a maximum of 54 points on offer each race, two races scheduled at the Milwaukee Mile this weekend, and only one race remaining afterwards to close out the season, Palou could very well lock up the title before the finale in Laguna Seca.
There are few scenarios that lead to Kirkwood or Lundgaard remaining in the title hunt, but some possibilities remain.
Points for the first five positions in each race are awarded as 50-40-35-32-30 and incrementally lower from there. There are bonus points awarded for earning pole and leading a lap, and two points for leading the most laps in a race.
Dominating weekend is best hope
If Kirkwood wins both races at the Milwaukee Mile, takes pole for both, and leads the most laps in each race, he will earn the maximum possible 108 points.
In that scenario, Palou could finish third in both races without leading a single lap in either and earn 70 points. Kirkwood would then narrowly still be in the title hunt heading into the finale.
If Kirkwood finishes second in both races in Milwaukee, he would earn 80 points plus any bonus for earning pole or leading laps.
Palou would have to earn 42 points or less across the weekend for Kirkwood to stay in the fight. Possible scenarios to reach that total include finishing 10th in both races or fourth in one and 22nd in the other, which are very achievable results for one of the best drivers on the grid.
If Kirkwood finishes third in both races, his point gain would only be approximately 70 for the weekend.
Palou would only have to earn 33 points to clinch the title, which he could easily do with a strong finish in just one of the two races at Milwaukee.
Lundgaard’s scenarios to stay alive in the championship have even slimmer margins. Even if he dominates the weekend and takes a maximum 108 points, his continued title contention is not guaranteed.
Palou would have to earn 53 points or less across two races to keep Lundgaard’s hopes alive, and that total would be achieved even if he earned a pair of eighth place results on Saturday and Sunday.
For context, Palou has not finished outside the top five in consecutive weekends since June of 2025, and has a good chance of earning more than 53 points in Milwaukee’s races.
All in Palou’s hands
The reality is that the championship is completely within Palou’s hands at this point.
If Palou finishes on the podium for both races and leads at least one lap at some point during the weekend, he will have clinched the title in Milwaukee no matter what any other driver does.
Similarly, a race win combined with a top 20 result in the other race of the double-header would also guarantee Palou the 54-point gap needed to secure the title early.
There are many small permutations possible on account of IndyCar’s bonus points system, but the overall result is that Kirkwood or Lundgaard would need to have a stellar weekend and Palou would need to have a disastrous one in order for the championship battle to still be alive in Laguna Seca.
If history is any guide, chances are very slim for Palou to have such a poor performance across both races at the Milwaukee Mile this weekend.
Should he succeed in locking up his fifth IndyCar title, he will become only the third driver to earn that number of championships and only the second driver to earn four in a row after Sebastien Bourdais did so from 2004-2007.
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