What do Charles Leclerc, Sergio Perez and Esteban Ocon have in common?
Aside from the last two's penchant for hitting each other while racing as Force India team-mates in 2017, they are the only three drivers with explicit contracts to race in Formula 1 in 2021.
And that is assuming their respective teams put pen to paper on the new Concorde Agreement (or its replacement).
Formula 1 has had a rather sedate silly season after the wild drama of 2018/19. Such a scenario was not entirely unexpected, given the swathe of changes 12 months ago, though there will still be a couple of new faces in new places.
As of now there is only the second Williams seat to decide. The list of candidates for that drive is small.
But the starting gun has already been fired for the 2021 machinations.
That is not entirely a surprise. When there is stability instability is always on the horizon. Teams start looking long-term to try and get pieces into place.
The first piece of the puzzle was 2020. The next segment was the finalisation of the 2021 regulations. There are still other matters to sort out. But coming soon to a paddock near you will be the first murmurs of potential moves.
Actually, that’s slightly disingenuous, because the silly season has already started.
It is only November, so why the look ahead to 2021 already?
Well, it has happened before that drivers have been locked down so early. Fernando Alonso’s McLaren move for 2007 was signed, sealed and delivered in December 2005, prior to his second title-winning campaign with Renault.
The recent tendency for MotoGP riders to hold two-year deals meant its 2019 silly season began unusually early. Maverick Vinales’ Yamaha extension was sorted in January 2018, Pramac recruited eventual Moto2 champion Pecco Bagnaia before he’d even turned a wheel that season, while Ducati’s boss opted to flick Jorge Lorenzo out of the 2019 equation after just five rounds of a 19-event season. Leading teams are already trying to put the first dominoes in place for 2021.
And back to F1. Last week in the United States Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff commented that he would do a “better job” in dealing with the future of Valtteri Bottas come 2020, after the Finn admitted mid-season uncertainty proved a “pain in the ass.” Wolff then added, unprompted, albeit with slight inaccuracy, that “in 2021 the door is wide open, no drivers are contracted to any team, that is super exciting. And I guess the driver carousel is going to start very soon.”
It came a few days after Lewis Hamilton gave the clearest indication yet that he intends to hang around in Formula 1 for 2021 – and beyond – and do so with his present employers, with whom he has been affiliated since his karting days.
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“I don’t see any reason to stop as I love what I do,” said Hamilton. “When there is a challenge, a whole new massive change in the regulations, that’s a huge change for me as a driver to help use the skills I’ve learned over the years to help navigate and steer the team in the right direction and going back to having those consistent seasons and punching out performances. I don’t see myself going anywhere else. I love being here at Mercedes, I love being part of the brand, I love being part of the history. I’m planning to be here so naturally at some point next year my mindset will be to switch into 2021 and wanting to be the pioneer in that era.”
As the six-time World Champion and comfortably the most marketable athlete in Formula 1 history Hamilton is the kingpin of the driver market. As in 2018 the majority of drivers are unlikely to commit until Hamilton’s future is sorted, even if it appears to be a case of dotting ‘i’s and crossing ‘t’s. Last time around that happened in May, an announcement on his 2019/20 deal followed in July, and the dominoes cascaded into place thereafter.
Should Hamilton renew with Mercedes then attention turns to other topics. Does Sebastian Vettel stick around beyond 2020? Does he do so with Ferrari? And what of Max Verstappen? Will he stay with Red Bull or could Mercedes come calling?
“I mean I really want to go one step at a time so we’ll see,” said Vettel recently. “We focus on the job this year, then obviously next year we have quite high ambitions to have a proper say in the fight for wins and ultimately the championship. Then we see from there."
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Beyond Hamilton and Vettel – and the confirmed Leclerc/Perez/Ocon – it would be remiss not to turn attention to Perez's current team-mate. We can assume that if both parties remain engaged, and this runs through both strands of the generational chain, then the Lance Stroll/Racing Point combination will continue its collaboration. Shocking indeed.
There nonetheless remains uncertainty that could affect the futures of leading participants. Honda has not yet committed beyond 2020. Renault is actively evaluating its F1 project amid a company-wide assessment. Manufacturer boardrooms do not ponder aspects with an F1 mindset. They will pull the plug if they want to. For F1’s sake let’s hope they keep everything plugged in.
There’s also the next generation of youngsters to keep in mind. The recent surge has, naturally, been followed by a relative dearth, but by 2021 there will likely be a smattering of new talents to consider. Red Bull, Ferrari, Renault and Honda are all grooming youngsters that could be on the brink of an F1 seat in 12 months’ time, albeit with the usual caveat that there are only a certain number of drives to go around.
F1 2019 hasn’t even finished but don’t be surprised if the major pieces of the 2021 driver jigsaw become key talking points a little earlier than usual…
