Alex Palou is the man of the moment in IndyCar, and currently holds a 121 point lead heading into this weekend’s race at Portland International Raceway.
With only three races remaining on the 2025 calendar, Palou has a chance to clinch the championship and secure his fourth title in five years.
Pato O’Ward is still technically alive in the championship race, but an unlikely set of circumstances would have to come together in order for the popular Mexican driver to earn his first championship.
Palou leaving Portland with a 98 point advantage, and assuming both drivers take part in the final races, would allow him to wrap up the title before the final races in Milwaukee and Nashville.
It is perhaps easier to look at the possible scenarios for this weekend from the point of view of O’Ward’s finishing position:
If O’Ward wins the race in Portland and takes all four bonus points, Palou would still clinch the championship if he finishes fourth place or higher.
If O’Ward wins but only takes the single bonus point for leading a lap, then Palou needs to finish in sixth or higher to clinch.
If O’Ward finishes second with no bonus points to earn 40 points on the weekend, then Palou can finish 13th and still win the title.
If O’Ward earns the final step of the podium and earns 35 points, Palou only needs to finish 18th or higher to clinch the championship.
If O’Ward crosses the line fourth and earns 32 points, Palou can still wrap up the title with a 20th place result.
If O’Ward finishes fifth and earns 30 points, then Palou can finish 22nd and still clinch.
If O’Ward earns a sixth place result and earns 28 points, Palou only needs to finish 24th or higher to clinch the title.
If O’Ward crosses the line seventh or worse, then his title chances are over and Palou will officially become the newest four-time champion.
Of course, if Palou finishes on the podium in Portland, which he has done 10 of the 14 races held so far this season, then there is nothing O’Ward can do to extend the title fight.
The chances of the dominant Spaniard earning yet another championship are increasingly likely, and he could have the Astor Cup secured in just a matter of days.
The BITNILE.com Grand Prix of Portland takes place on Sunday, August 10 at 3:00 PM eastern time.
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