Mercedes has not been beaten to victory at a Formula 1 grand prix since October, with its eight-in-a-row streak including the opening six rounds of 2019. It has prompted suggestions that Mercedes could go through a season without losing a single race. Such a scenario remains unlikely, so Motorsport Week takes a look at the factors that could trip up Mercedes.
Driver clash
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Mercedes only lost eight times during its three-year dominant spell at the start of the V6 turbo hybrid era and two of those defeats came courtesy of collisions between Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg, in Belgium in 2014 and Spain in 2016. The latter proved to be a turning point, with rules of engagement enacted, and the threat of a red card if it was repeated. Rosberg’s exit at the end of that year paved the way for a new harmony within the team and so far Valtteri Bottas has yet to regularly threaten Hamilton in the same way. But 2019-spec Bottas has been closer to Hamilton, with Toto Wolff commenting that their wheel-to-wheel scrap, albeit very respectful, at the start in Azerbaijan reminded him of past situations. It is also entirely possible that an external incident could wreck a win prospect, as it did for Rosberg in Malaysia in 2016. Hamilton could very easily have copped a puncture in Monaco after his brush with Max Verstappen, while the last team to come mighty close to an unbeaten run – McLaren in 1988 – had their streak ruined when Ayrton Senna collided with a lapped car.
Reliability
Mercedes heading to Montreal with the best car and on an imperious streak? If it sounds familiar that’s because it’s exactly the scenario it found itself in back in 2014. On that occasion the high-speed Circuit Gilles Villeneuve was poised to perfectly suit Mercedes’ dominant package but a simultaneous MGU-K failure slowed the W05s. Rosberg sensationally tried his best but with a few laps to go Daniel Ricciardo, having finally passed Sergio Perez, cruised past the wounded Silver Arrow along the back straight. Infamously, an engine failure denied Hamilton victory at the 2016 Malaysian Grand Prix. Mercedes has not been completely bulletproof this season but the glitches that previously cost it are now few and far between. It has not retired from a race since last July.
Weather
As soon as any variable is thrown into the mix it is ostensibly bad news for the team with the fastest package – it is an unwanted unknown. Wet weather usually provides the smaller teams with an opportunity while also risking catching the front-runners out, particularly if a band of heavy showers arrives at an unfortunate moment (such as when the leaders have just driven past the pit entry). The one snag for Mercedes’ rivals comes in the form of Lewis Hamilton. The reigning World Champion is a formidable driver in tricky conditions. He has not been beaten in a rain-affected race since the 2014 Hungarian Grand Prix (when he rose from the pit lane to third) while when the wet stuff struck in pivotal 2018 qualifying sessions he was there to profit. Maybe Mercedes’ rivals actually have a better chance in the dry…
Rivals’ form
As dominant as Mercedes has been so far in 2019 it has also been assisted by its rivals either slipping up or simply failing to find the right window. Ferrari could have won in Bahrain but didn’t, owing to the engine failure that slowed Charles Leclerc and, partly, due to Sebastian Vettel’s spin. Leclerc was also very much a contender in Azerbaijan until his costly Q2 crash. Vettel has spoken of not yet getting the SF90 into a window in which he can perform to his maximum and if – and it’s a big if – he can ‘click’ with the car then there’s little doubt he can be a formidable contender, while the car itself has impressive straight-line speed. Over in the Red Bull camp Max Verstappen has been sensational this season with a car still lacking ultimate performance both from the chassis and the ever-improving power unit. Pierre Gasly has had a subdued start but is gradually chipping away at it; should Red Bull be able to offer a two-pronged attack then it naturally enhances its chances.
Tyres
How Formula 1 teams work the modified Pirelli rubber (which contains a thinner gauge) has been a main talking point in 2019. In reducing the overheating and blistering, and narrowing the compound range, it appears to have so far benefited Mercedes and hurt Ferrari, which has struggled with warm-up issues. Last season Mercedes’ performance was frequently worst on the softest compounds where it was prone to blistering while Ferrari often nestled into the window. Nonetheless, the easiest place from which to manage tyres is up front, which is where Mercedes has found itself for the most part in 2019. But Hamilton’s Monaco display shows Mercedes is not quite there yet; Daniel Ricciardo was also equipped with the Medium tyre for 68 laps and was able to pump in rapid times at the end when he needed to, while Hamilton – whether for ‘Hollywood’ effect or not – claimed he needed a miracle. At other venues Mercedes’ tyre woe would not have resulted in a win, and it had Monaco’s narrow streets (and the front-limited nature of the problem meaning Hamilton could still trash the rears for maximum traction) to thank for the success of Hamilton’s defensive work. One advantage for Mercedes, though, is that Ferrari clearly thinks the tyres are the single biggest element hampering its performance. If Ferrari can get the front and rears working in perfect harmony – a black art it has yet to master – then perhaps it can offer a more sustained challenge.
Strategy
Being up front often provides Mercedes with the chance to not only control the race but be able to react to any attempted manoeuvre from behind. One of the biggest circuits at which a blunder is most keenly felt – Monaco – has already been ticked off the list. But that’s not to say that it is infallible. Not stopping behind the Virtual Safety Car in Austria last year cost Hamilton the lead of a race he had controlled (before the eventual retirement) while a few races beforehand in China it lacked the requisite fresh tyres to be able to pit under the Safety Car and mirror the race-winning approach adopted by Red Bull. It is that exact situation that could trip up Mercedes in 2019 in the event of an ill-timed Safety Car, Virtual or real, with the teams behind able to take a gamble which might just pay off.
An anomaly
Remember 2015? Mercedes was indisputably the king of Formula 1. It only lost three times. And one of those was an utterly unexpected anomaly. The Marina Bay Street Circuit in Singapore has been one of Mercedes’ weaknesses in the V6 era but even so in 2015 it was comfortably the third-best team, miles off the pace, as it struggled to find the right set-up, a situation team boss Toto Wolff felt was exacerbated by tweaked tyre pressures. It was a snowball effect. It had a disastrous impact on its result (fifth and sixth on the grid, a fourth and a DNF in race trim) and one which was a total anomaly in a season of dominance, forcing Mercedes to deny suggestions of a conspiracy. Mercedes has developed into a much sharper operation but weird and unexpected situations can still arise.
