The factory Yamaha squad endured one of its least competitive phases in MotoGP this season. But how did it get to this stage, and how does it plan to escape its malaise? Motorsport Week analyses the situation.
If you had predicated after the chequered flag had fallen at the 2017 Dutch TT that this would be Yamaha’s final MotoGP victory for 25 races you would have been wrapped in a straightjacket and institutionalised.
Such a drought, the longest in its premier class history, surely could not be possible for a team of Yamaha's stature? After all, this was a team that looked well on its way to 2017 title glory in the wake of new signing Maverick Vinales topping all of the pre-season tests, before winning three of the first five races.
But even during this apparent golden run, problems with the M1 were evident. They had been ever since the new bike hit the track for the first time in Valencia at the end of 2016.
Valentino Rossi's win at Assen did indeed signal the beginning of a barren spell for Yamaha that would not be broken until Vinales claimed victory at Phillip Island this year.
From the winter, it became abundantly clear Yamaha had not rectified the issues with traction and tyre wear which plagued it in 2017. The electronics took the brunt of the blame initially, with Rossi conceding during testing in Thailand in February that Yamaha has struggled since the switch to the unified electronics package for 2016. Eventually the root cause was deemed – or admitted – to be the engine. Bound by an in-season freeze on engine development freeze, it became clear quickly Yamaha was doomed to fail in 2018.
The writing was on the wall back in Valencia two years ago.
“I would say [there was] no single mistake [in '18],” said Yamaha boss Lin Jarvis. “I think not getting to grips to truly understand the problem two years ago was the mistake. So everything that happened this season was a consequence of not taking the right decisions in the past. And I think in the middle of the season finally became very clear what we have to do. But we are behind our competitors, in particular considerably behind Ducati I think, and also Honda.”
The strong start to its 2017 campaign undoubtedly proved to be something of a false dawn for Yamaha. Rossi was having difficulties with the front of the bike, but Vinales was fine. A new chassis later in the season – coming at Assen – improved Rossi's situation while worsening Vinales'. Yamaha continued to chase its tail into the winter, testing 2016, 2017 and 2018 chassis at Valencia and in a private test at Sepang.
Matters were complicated somewhat further by Tech3's Johann Zarco topping the Valencia test on the 2017 chassis, while the works team raced and tested the 2016. Zarco would eventually opt for 2016 bike, while the factory team seemed to find a decent direction with its current chassis, basing it largely on the 2016.
But this was not fixing the core issues, with Rossi admitting in Valencia at the end of this year Yamaha spent too much time digging in the wrong ditch.
“At the end of 2016 we had some problems, some issues,” Rossi remarked. “We were strong, but we suffered already with the tyre, and it looks like also the other manufacturers in that moment made some big steps. But unfortunately we tried to fix this problem not with the right stuff. We tried to work on the chassis, on the weight distribution, when for me we had to work in other areas like the electronics and the engine.”
Despite his struggles, and his frequent comments that Yamaha's maximum potential was third, Rossi remained a factor in the battle for second in the standings for much of the campaign, eventually finishing third with five podiums to his credit.
Vinales matched this tally, including his Phillip Island win, and was just five points adrift in fourth in the final championship standings. But the Spaniard proved less capable at managing the situation when compared to team-mate Rossi and even Tech3’s Zarco. This was shown prominently in his exchanges with the press, which became increasingly sharper and more hopeless in tone as the season progressed.
After the Czech Grand Prix an all-at-sea Vinales lamented he was unsure if he would ever find a decent base set-up with which to work. A week later, after a disastrous Austrian qualifying, where Rossi and Vinales struggled to 11th and 14th respectively, Yamaha publicly apologised to its riders for the situation it had found itself in with its nightmare machine.
Vinales' situation was perhaps accentuated by the fact he had signed on with Yamaha for two more years, his 2019/20 deal announced in January 2018. Many believe the lack of a much-discussed football-style transfer window saved Vinales from certain axing. But it can also be argued Yamaha could well have lost him to a rival manufacturer had he been on the market as 'silly season' kicked into high gear. Given how the end of the season panned out, and how the pre-season phase has gone so far, that may well have proven to be a disastrous turn of events for Yamaha, compounded further by the loss of Zarco – and Tech3 – to KTM.
Vinales' Phillip Island win provided some vindication for Yamaha, which is adamant it would have still signed the Spaniard again had it waited until later in the season, despite the general feeling being to the contrary. But it also ushered in some much-needed hope.
Small changes to the set-up heading to the flyaway events, mixed with scorching track conditions in Thailand, meant Vinales missed victory by just 0.170s, placing third. Rossi threw away two victory chances in the final two races with crashes, while Vinales felt a Yamaha 1-2 was on the cards in the sodden Valencia finale had both not hit the deck. That was an almost unthinkable result over the previous 15 or so months.
A new engine was unsurprisingly the main focus of the Valencia and Jerez tests. Vinales topped the former, and classified third overall at the end of the latter. A buoyant Vinales believes he now has the tools to fight for the championship once more.
“We were very competitive with used tyres, I could ride really well the bike during all the test,” he said at Jerez. “And that track for me is really difficult, I've never been fast with the MotoGP here, and this year I could keep really good lap times, I could push. So it's really important to be just one tenth away from the top here, at a track that I think is the most difficult for us, it's really good. I think it's the bike to be competitive and the bike to win the title.”
However, Rossi did not share this view, even going so far as to say the improvements with the 2019 bike were “not enough”.
Worryingly, this has an all too familiar feel. Rossi was less-than-enthusiastic two years ago when the 2017 bike was rolled out, while Vinales sung its praises. Surely Yamaha's cycle of despair cannot be about to begin again?
How it navigates the pre-season phase next year will be crucial, not least with three fewer days of testing at its disposal in February. The addition of the factory-supported Franco Morbidelli at the Petronas Sepang team will be a welcome addition in terms of data acquisition – Yamaha undoubtedly wasted the development potential of Zarco. Having Morbidelli commenting on direction during testing could well prove to break any potential stalemate which could arise should Rossi and Vinales' opinions on the M1 continue to differ.
Whether it is Rossi or Vinales who is right about the 2019 bike at present, one thing remains clear. It will not be enough for Yamaha to simply take one step forward. Honda and Ducati have already stolen a march on Yamaha, and this is not a fact lost on the team, as Vinales warned.
“The problem is the opponents will make another step, so we need to make two steps to be competitive.”
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