Red Bull’s rivals think it will be a closer battle next year, but there are plenty of reasons why Red Bull’s domination could continue.
It’s going to take a lot more than the ban on blown diffusers to allow the likes of Ferrari and McLaren to catch up. Apart from stability on all fronts, Red Bull have other aces up their sleeve.
These include effectively becoming the Renault factory team, plus the deal with Nissan’s luxury car brand Infiniti which could bring major benefits.
The approach Pirelli choose to take with next season’s tyres could spell more bad news for the chasing pack. Also as history has proven, it takes something extra special to stop the genius of Adrian Newey from prevailing.
Red Bull has been built around Newey’s talents in order to extract the most out of him. He is very happy in a team that has given him the chance to work the way he likes, and the team is being heavily rewarded.
Christian Horner told BBC sport: “Adrian is like the conductor of an orchestra and he has to have the relevant players so we had to make some key appointments early on.
He added: “Unlike Williams and McLaren, who already had structures which Adrian just fed into, with Red Bull he started with a clean sheet of paper.”
There is no doubt that the blown diffuser has been one of the RB7’s biggest strengths. However there are strengths all over the car, it’s not just about that area of the car.
It should also be remembered that all the teams will suffer from the ban, not just Red Bull. At Silverstone it appeared that McLaren endured the most difficulty when cut backs were initially applied (but then changed back at the Nurburgring).
Apart from the blown diffuser ban the technical regulations are relatively stable going into 2012. In theory this could allow McLaren and Ferrari to close in on Red Bull.
However when the regulations are stable it’s becomes harder to find big gains. Therefore the teams need to become extremely inventive to make their cars go faster.
Out of all the designers in the paddock, Newey is the most likely person to find that new creative idea, which leaves everyone scratching their heads. He has already said that the RB8 is going to “amaze”.
Mark Webber says: “We still know he’s capable of designing good cars in between small regulation changes. That’ll have to be the case next year.”
The only real chink in Red Bull’s armour at the moment is KERS. They are not getting the same benefits from the system as other teams are getting.
Part of the reason is the way that the system is currently packaged in the car. Red Bull is only extracting two thirds of the power that it is capable of. In the first few races of the season there were also numerous reliability problems.
The collaboration between the team and Infiniti could play a huge part in turning KERS from a weakness into a strength. The relationship is set to deepen next year.
Horner says: “In the short time that we have been involved with Infiniti, it has become clear that the closer we work together the more performance advantages can be gained by both sides.”
Infiniti are leaders when it comes to automotive battery technology. Red Bull will be able to benefit from Infiniti’s large research budget, and the data that they already have.
The idea is for Infiniti to help Red Bull create a more effective and reliable KERS. The partnership could prove even more fruitful in 2014 when the device is set to become more powerful, and therefore a more critical performance variable.
Furthermore Red Bull will effectively be the factory Renault team in 2012. This means greater collaboration between the team and Renault.
Red Bull will be a far bigger focus for the French manufacturer. This brings many more benefits as opposed to just being one of Renault’s customers. Renault will no longer hold anything back, as they perhaps might have done when their main focus was on their own F1 team.
Speaking about the alliance Horner said: “It guarantees stability; it makes us the premier, factory team of Renault Sport, so our colleagues where the engines are produced will be working hand-in-hand with the engineers and designers at Red Bull.”
This will be particularly important in 2014 when F1 switches to a 1.6 turbo engine. By working closely together, Red Bull will be able to get Renault to manufacture an engine that works in harmony with Newey’s aggressive aerodynamics and packaging. This wouldn’t necessarily be the case with just a customer engine
Looking back on F1 history it has taken something very special to beat a Newey team.
Benetton and Ferrari are the only two teams that have been able to put together a significant spell, where they have been able to eclipse Newey.
For Benetton it was in 1994/1995, and for Ferrari it was 2000 through to 2004.
The key link between those two periods was it featured the dream team of Ross Brawn, Rory Byrne and Michael Schumacher. Jean Todt was then a very important factor for Ferrari as team principal.
It took a team with three or four extremely talented individuals to be able to compete on a level playing field with Newey. You really have to wonder if there is a team with that level of talent at the moment. Mercedes are trying re-create it with the recent signings of Aldo Costa and Geoff Willis.
It also has to be remembered that in Ferrari’s case the development contract with Bridgestone played a huge part usurping Newey’s dominance of F1. That close relationship gave them a significant advantage over their main rivals, who were on Michelin tyres during the 2001-2006 tyre war era.
Significantly no team can enjoy such an advantage these days now that everyone gets the same tyres from Pirelli.
Pirelli’s approach next year could hand Red Bull another advantage. In some races this year the RB7 has suffered from high tyre wear.
Although it has been the dominant package over a single lap, the tyres have held it back in races.
Due to the fact that there has been very heavy degradation on the tyres in some races, Red Bull hasn’t been able to unlock the full potential of its car over a race distance.
On circuits where tyre wear hasn’t been a major issue, Red Bull has generally been able to win comfortably. On the high degradation circuits Red Bull has faced a tougher fight to win.
For example in Barcelona, Sebastian Vettel endured an epic fight to hold off Lewis Hamilton. Let’s not forget Barcelona is normally the track that is most suited to Red Bull. In Suzuka Red Bull lost out on race victory because of suffering more tyre wear than McLaren.
Had Bridgestone remained in the sport in 2011, with their supremely durable tyres, Red Bull would have just waltzed into the distance in every single race. Pirelli’s more fragile tyres have kept races close.
Generally since mid-season Pirelli’s tyres have become more durable, and there have been less marbles.
We have seen less pit stops in races than we did in the first half of the season. In India Pirelli were very conservative with the tyres, as it was a new circuit. This allowed Red Bull to extract more of the potential in their car in race conditions.
If Pirelli takes a more durable approach into 2012 then it will naturally help Red Bull in the races, as they unlock more of their speed rather than having to restrain it, in order to preserve fragile tyres.
Pirelli have already said they intend to solve the marble issue, and have less of a time gap between the two compounds on a race weekend. This points us in the direction of more durable tyres for next year.
No doubt McLaren and Ferrari will be pushing for extremely fragile tyres over the winter. They know it may be one of their only chances to keep in touch with the Milton Keynes squad.
Overall it’s going to take a mammoth effort for Red Bull to be dethroned anytime soon. One of their rivals is going to have to do something very special in order to achieve it.
Everything is in place for Red Bull’s golden era to continue.
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