Mercedes boss Toto Wolff believes the outfit had a 90 per cent chance of triumphing at one stage of the Bahrain Grand Prix, before Sebastian Vettel ultimately prevailed for Ferrari.
Vettel led away from pole position and switched to Soft tyres when he pitted on lap 18 of 57, ostensibly signalling that he was leaning towards a two-stop strategy.
Mercedes, meanwhile, serviced second-placed Valtteri Bottas two laps later and put him on Medium tyres, outlining that the Finn would be running to the end of the Grand Prix.
Ferrari kept Vettel out, converting to a one-stop strategy, and he came under pressure from Bottas during the closing laps, but kept the Mercedes driver at bay, winning by seven-tenths of a second.
“We realised pretty early that the Medium was a good tyre,” Wolff said, explaining Mercedes’ strategy.
“We saw that with [Fernando] Alonso and decided to try it, to see how it would be on our cars with the option of stopping twice.
"Valtteri immediately had very good pace. So it was clear that he would make it to the end on the Medium but there was still a chance that Ferrari would do the same.
"They were taking big risks because at the end Vettel's car was probably two seconds slower than Valtteri, so if it would have been one or two laps later he would have lost the race.
"But 'would be' is not what counts. What counts is the race result and Sebastian and Ferrari won it, and it was well deserved. They adapted to the situation.
"After coming out on the Mediums behind Sebastian and with a gap that we were able to close down, knowing that they needed to either stop again or would run out of tyre.
"This was the moment where I would say the 90 per cent probability was on us winning. And we lost that.”
Wolff expressed hope that Mercedes’ missed chances across the opening two Grands Prix of the year won’t come back to haunt the team when the season concludes in November.
"In the Drivers' Championship, Lewis lost seven points in Melbourne,” said Wolff.
“I don't think that he would have been much better than P3 in Bahrain because it was a lot between Valtteri and Sebastian.
"For a race win he was too far away. In the Constructors' we lost seven in Melbourne and we lost seven in Bahrain, so 14 points. That can make the difference in the end.
"It will be very close this season and it will swing from track to track and from how well prepared you are or not."
