Formula 1 heads to Azerbaijan for the fourth round of the season and the last of the early ‘flyaway’ events before the European phase. Motorsport Week ponders some of the key talking points.
Can Mercedes maintain its unbeaten start…?
Not since 1992 has a Formula 1 team started a season with three straight 1-2 finishes. Not even in its dominant 2014-16 period did Mercedes manage the feat, emphasising the manner in which the team has managed to improve operationally as the seasons have progressed. It was fortunate to triumph in Bahrain but that it was in a position to profit from Charles Leclerc’s problem owed much to Lewis Hamilton’s resilience in battle with Sebastian Vettel – which in turn opened the door for Valtteri Bottas to rise to a net second. Either side of Bahrain Mercedes has got its W10 into the perfect set-up window and reaped the rewards. The results, given its and everyone else’s data post-testing showed Ferrari was ahead, are surely beyond its expectations. Mercedes has had an eventful history in Baku with two wins courtesy of Nico Rosberg’s controlled 2016 drive and Hamilton’s fortunate victory 12 months ago in the wake of Bottas’ puncture. If it can make it four-in-a-row (or, more truthfully, six up given its end-of-2018 success) then it can start packing its tuxedos for December’s FIA Gala. Hamilton, too, is on an extraordinary run of 10 wins in the last 14 races.
…or will Ferrari finally get the win?
Results-wise this has been a desperately disappointing start to the year for Ferrari. It opened both 2017 and 2018 with two wins from three but is yet to triumph in 2019 – indeed, Kimi Raikkonen’s US GP triumph is its only victory in the last 11 races. That is a lacklustre run. Vettel has stressed that its SF90 has inherently strong pace but unless that can be evidenced soon, and consistently, then this year’s title race will already be done and dusted. Formula 1’s 2019 cars are only operating in a very narrow operating window – even at the front of the grid – and Vettel has not found the sweet spot with his car since testing. Reliability has also been a concern. Ferrari has yet to win in Baku – one of only three circuits on the current calendar – but it has had its opportunities, with Vettel’s 2017 meltdown and his over-exuberance in 2018 costing him and the team dearly. Ferrari’s SF90 should, in theory, be rapid down Baku’s lengthy straights, with most of the circuit layout more Bahrain than Baku. Ferrari’s peaks, so far, appear higher than Mercedes’, but the baseline is not, and that is costing it pace and points.
Is this Leclerc’s time to shine?
At each of the opening three grands prix Charles Leclerc has been instructed to play second fiddle to Sebastian Vettel, with varying levels of justification as to whether it was the correct call. In Bahrain Leclerc was the dominant figure, belying his inexperience, and the engine glitch that denied him a maiden win was cruel. Leclerc still sits on zero Formula 1 wins – but could that change in Baku? Leclerc has a strong record at the street venue. In 2017 he crushed his opposition in Formula 2 to claim pole position and two on-the-road wins – the latter taken by a time penalty – just days after the death of his father, demonstrating supreme mental strength to ally to his natural flair. Last season he took a stunning sixth place – his best result of the year – in a drive that announced his arrival in Formula 1 after a tricky start. If he gets the better of Vettel in Baku this weekend then it will leave Ferrari with a difficult decision as the sport returns to Europe.
Can someone upset the order?
Formula 1 has visited Baku three times but the only driver to have taken two podiums is not from any of the big teams. Step forward Sergio Perez, whose 2016 and 2018 top-three finishes are even more impressive when Force India’s underdog status in an era of big team dominance is taken into account. Perez and Force India flew throughout the 2016 weekend, was in win contention briefly in 2017 – until a clash with team-mate Esteban Ocon derailed the weekend – and last year picked up the pieces as others crumbled. Lance Stroll, too, has as many Baku podiums as Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel courtesy of his 2017 heroics, and last year dragged his recalcitrant Williams to eighth. Could one of Racing Point’s drivers upset the order again this season? Given how competitive Racing Point – well, Force India – has been so far in Azerbaijan, they could be a team to keep an eye on this weekend.
Can Williams pick up a point?
Williams has a 100 per cent record of scoring points in Azerbaijan. Granted, none of the previous three years have been this diabolical but even in 2018 its two drivers qualified on the sixth row of the grid, with Stroll racing to eighth. Only at low-downforce Monza did it scale such heights again. Williams remains comfortably adrift of the midfield – a situation unlikely to massively improve this year – but Azerbaijan surely represents an opportunity. It has an abundance of similar 90-degree turns while the third sector is fundamentally a full-throttle section that even a soapbox such as the FW42 should find fair game. In both 2017 and 2018 just 13 of the starters reached the chequered flag thanks to the litany of incidents and accidents. If the race unfolds in a similar outcome this year then it’s surely the best chance – and is likely to be thereafter – for Williams to at least sneak into the top 10. It is destined to be last come Abu Dhabi – but a point or two would be a welcome respite amid its ongoing malaise.
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