This weekend's MotoGP Japanese Grand Prix presents Marc Marquez with his first match point in his quest for the 2018 world championship, with the Honda rider holding a lead of 77 points over Ducati's Andrea Dovizioso after pipping him to victory by 0.115 seconds in a thrilling Thailand battle.
Should Marquez prove successful at Motegi he will tally up his fifth top tier crown in six years, matching fellow Honda legend Mick Doohan's haul [taken between '94-'98], and will become just the fourth rider in history to secure five premier class titles after Doohan, Valentino Rossi [seven] and Giacomo Agostini [eight].
So how does Marquez add to his already immense legacy in the Land of the Rising Sun?
Should Marquez win this weekend's Japanese Grand Prix, then he will be crowned champion regardless of where Dovizioso finishes. If a second Motegi MotoGP win does not come, second, third or fourth would suffice so long as Dovizioso is behind him.
Any lower, he simply needs to keep Dovizioso two points in sight while also making sure he does not concede 24 points to Yamaha's Valentino Rossi – something unlikely to occur given the Iwata marque's woes this season.
With such a healthy margin in the standings, failing to finish in the points could also net him the title, so long as Dovizioso does not manage 14th or higher.
While his path sounds simple, Dovizioso can prolong Marquez hunt. If the Ducati rider repeats his win of '17, the title will roll onto Phillip Island regardless of where the Honda man ends up. And that is an entirely possible scenario.
Since the summer break, both Marquez and Dovizioso have scored 106 points, doing so with identical results of two wins, two seconds and a third. The Desmosedici suits the stop-start nature of Motegi, though Marquez at least comes to Japan – scene of one of three last-corner defeats to Dovizioso in the last 18 months – with the knowledge he can come out on top in a final-turn dust-up with the Italian after finally getting the upper hand in Thailand.
So to wrap up the title this weekend, Marquez simply needs to concede no less than two points to Dovizioso and no less than 24 to Rossi. Should he do so, this will be the third MotoGP title Marquez has sewn up at Honda's backyard after '14 and '16.
Had the early season panned out different for Dovizioso, who lost at least 56 points from crashes at Jerez, Le Mans and Catalunya, Marquez would lead the points by just 21 coming to Japan. The scrapped British Grand Prix could well have seen that gap reduced, after a strong showing from Ducati throughout practice and qualifying at Silverstone. Conversely, had Marquez taken the likely win he lost in Argentina and the second he was running at Mugello when he crashed the title would have been sealed in Thailand.
Of course, should bad luck befall Marquez in these final four races and he failed to score anything, the door would be left ajar for Dovizioso to steal an unlikely crown. That would, however, require a minimum of second place at all remaining races – something which looks possible based on current form, but it is unclear yet if the Ducati will be competitive at perpetual bogey track Phillip Island.
Such has been Marquez's near-flawless campaign, beating him to the crown is still slim even if he were to miss the final four races.
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