MotoGP's 'silly season' has been in full swing since the end of last year, with rumours flying around regarding the futures of several big names.
Reigning World Champion Marc Marquez ended any notion of a move away from Honda by renewing through 2020, while Maverick Vinales and Valentino Rossi confirmed the extensions of their respective contracts for the same length of time.
Coming into the campaign, rookies Franco Morbidelli (Marc VDS) and Xavier Simeon (Avintia), and HRC-backed LCR rider Cal Crutchlow already had their futures secured, while Moto2 frontrunner Francesco Bagnaia announced his 2019/20 plans – a Ducati contract that will see him placed at Pramac.
Perhaps the biggest shake-up on the grid came in the form of Tech3, the French team confirming the end of its 20-year Yamaha relationship to joining forces with KTM.
This has sent the rumour mill into overdrive, with current Tech3 rider Johann Zarco at the centre of the speculation. Whatever the in-demand Zarco decides could well have an influential impact on the formation of the 2019 grid.
During the Qatar weekend, Zarco's manager Laurent Fellon confirmed contact had been made by Honda, Suzuki, KTM and, to a lesser extent, Ducati, while Yamaha boss Lin Jarvis said the Japanese marque would consider offering full factory support to Zarco with whatever team takes over Tech3's M1s.
The link that refuses to die is that of Zarco and Honda. The RC213V has proven to be a difficult beast, but one that can be tamed if its occupant is of exceptional calibre – as acutely demonstrated by Marquez’s 2016/17 titles.
Described as “impressive” by Marquez in Qatar, Honda bringing in someone capable of consistently challenging its prized asset seems a risky move. HRC has enjoyed a lengthy period of calm with the Marquez/Dani Pedrosa partnership.
But securing someone as sought after as Zarco could be worth the risk, and neither rider seems particularly worried about the prospect of the other.
“I want the strongest team that they [HRC] think because I think it's good to have very, very competitive riders with high level in the same garage, because for improving the bike, for the team, for the atmosphere is better,” said Marquez. “Dani is fast, he's very fast, and this season he will be very fast. But Johann is impressive, so I don't know, for me it will be okay.”
Zarco added when asked if the idea scared him: “Why would I be scared? Repsol Honda is a kind of dream team. Since I watched MotoGP as a kid on TV, even though I didn't watch a lot, I remember Mick Doohan, then Rossi, now Marquez. It was always good to watch this team.”
This could also be looked at as foreshadowing on Honda's part. Four titles in five premier class seasons has cemented Marquez as a true great of grand prix racing, but there is a feeling that this upcoming two-year stint could be his last with the marque. If it is, the blow will be cushioned by the fact it has Zarco to pick up the mantle.
But the massive orange elephant in the room cannot be ignored. Publicly acknowledged by KTM as the man they most want, more so than Marquez, Zarco will be set for whatever he wants if he goes with KTM – either with the factory team or the fully supported Tech3 squad.
At present, the RC16 isn't a race-winning bike, nor does it look ready to battle for the podium. But the potential is there, as Pol Espargaro, Bradley Smith and Mika Kallio proved last season, reducing KTM's pace deficit from over three seconds to eight-tenths in 18 races. If they can make similar progress this year, Zarco's talent alone could be just what KTM needs to extract that last bit to make it a regular podium challenger.
KTM also comes with less pressure. The Honda has been difficult. It's a better bike this year, but that's not to say it won't become a pest again. The KTM has still to show its true colours, so a tricky season can easily be passed off as being down to the bike. If Marquez is able to still win on a Honda that isn't behaving as it should, Zarco won't have anywhere to hide.
Yamaha's offer has come too late in the day; Zarco proved he was just as capable as its current factory riders last season, but the Iwata firm carrying on its philosophy of handing down year-old bikes will have been received as a cold shoulder by the Frenchman. Yamaha will need to live with its actions and look elsewhere for its next hero, which could come in the form of Franco Morbidelli, as Marc VDS close in on Tech3's M1s.
Ducati showing interest is not surprising, but it would do well to take a look at itself first. '17 runner-up Andrea Dovizioso has put in the hard yards at Bologna, and is now firmly a championship favourite in MotoGP. Ducati has said it wants to retain both riders, but it now has to put priority on Dovizioso – not Jorge Lorenzo.
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Lorenzo's reported €12million pay cheque to coax him away from Yamaha will be slashed after a fairly average debut campaign last year. But if Ducati think it can still pay him more than Dovizioso – who is reportedly on €2million – the Italian will have every right to leave it high and dry, with Honda and Suzuki willing to put their hands in their pockets to acquire his services.
Dovizioso has prior at HRC, with his debut premier class win coming with the squad in 2009 at Donington Park. Having been dumped for 2012, rumours of a return surfaced during the '16 'silly season'. The deal was apparently close to coming off, though it hinged on Pedrosa making the rumoured switch to Yamaha.
Pedrosa's time at Honda looks to be reaching its natural conclusion. The Spaniard has proven a great asset to HRC, winning races during each year of his premier class career and standing as a highly competent team player. Where he goes is unknown, with Suzuki and KTM potential destinations. Should that happen, and Zarco doesn't take up residence at Honda, Dovizioso is a perfect replacement.
Already well versed in how to extract the best from a difficult machine, Dovizioso and Marquez share a great respect and admiration for each other after their titanic title battle. In Dovizioso, Honda will have someone who has proven to be just as quick as Marquez – the Italian beating the Spaniard in three last corner head-to-heads in the last seven months – and a pairing not likely to butt heads.
Ducati won't exactly come off terribly if Dovizioso leaves. Danilo Petrucci does have an option on his current Ducati deal that could see him selected by the factory team should it wish, while Lorenzo's options remain fairly limited. Four podiums on a full factory GP17 last year validated Ducati's faith in the young Italian, but whether he could carry the hopes of the factory remains to be seen. Lorenzo's current form has been too unpredictable to make any firm suggestions he can lead the charge either. Dovizioso, however, is a sure thing. Letting him go could very well prolong the wait for more title glory, a wait that's now reached over a decade.
Whatever happens, it seems that the fates of Zarco and Dovizioso rest in each other's hands as they decide their next move. Once they fall into place, the rest of the picture will surely become much clearer.
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